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Nov 19, 2008
60 Democratic Senators Is Not a Magic Number!
Posted By David

I wanted the Democrats to win each Senate race. They did quite well overall in the states where we know the results. We still don’t know the results for Alaska, Minnesota and Georgia. Georgia may be determined fastest because there is a run-off election on December 2.

The media shows its lack of understanding of the US Senate with its obsessive focus on the question of whether the Democrats will have 60 votes counting the two Independents who caucus with the Democrats. The media assumption is that 60 Senate seats lead to a filibuster proof Senate. Most of the media neither knows nor understands the way the Senate now works. Sixty Senate Democrats does not guarantee votes on major issues.

Senate Democrats rarely are unanimous, even though on most issues a substantial number vote together. They are mostly joined by the two Independents (Sanders of VT and Lieberman of CT). The consistent exception has been the Iraq war where Lieberman filibustered with the Republicans and blocked the Senate from voting on the merits of the issue numerous times.

Senate conservatives and reactionaries have mainly used the filibuster to block progressive change. Their use of the filibuster literally prevents an issue from being brought to a vote. Historically, its most notorious use prevented civil rights progress on basic issues such as anti-lynching, protection of voting rights, and outlawing racial discrimination. Its occassional use by liberals (rarely successful) does not justify it. The filibuster stands as the weapon of those determined to block necessary change with their fierce determination to prevent issues from being decided. It protects the status quo and privilege.

As the Republican party presidential election base narrows to southern and border states, southern, border, and small state Senators may resort to the filibuster as they did in the Bush years. In the 110th Congress (the one coming to an end), Republicans resorted to the filibuster 94 times, thereby setting a new and dubious record.

The way to overcome filibusters is to recognize that liberals and Democratic and Republican  moderates have to negotiate workable compromises to isolate the Republicans who say no to everything constructive. That is likely to be more possible in an Obama Administration that will stand for pragmatic problem-solving changes, in contrast to the Bush record of blocking solutions to pressing public problems.

On issues such as energy and health care, negotiations will have to occur both among Democrats and between Democrats and Republicans to get that desired result.

I want Begich, Franken, and Martin to win respectively in Alaska, Minnesota, and Georgia. They will add progressive voices to the Senate. The need to bring the small band of Democratic and Republican moderates along to join the liberals, and thwart the likely filibustering opposition of the Senate Republican leadership, continues.

The ability to negotiate successfully is at the heart of moving the progressive and Obama agenda through the Senate minefield.

Nov 17, 2008
Update on Franken Race
Posted By Ashley

UPDATE: Huffington Post reports that a recent political study shows that if unrecorded ballots are counted, Al Franken is highly likely to win. -------------------------------

We've been following two still-undecided Senate races closely (we've endorsed the challengers in both races, and our supporters have raised thousands for them): Jim Martin in Georgia (challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss) and Al Franken in Minnesota (challenging Rebublican incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman). Martin's race is headed for a run-off ending December 2, while Franken's race is likely headed to the courts as the state does a full re-count of all ballots. Currently, Norm Coleman is up by a mere 206 votes, and many predict that the recount will prove more ballots cast for Franken. With a race so close and a chance that Franken could indeed prove the winner, the former comedian is headed to Washington, D.C. to prepare for a possible win.

According to Minnesota's Start Tribune, Al Franken will meet this week with Senate Democrat leaders to fully brief them on the recount and the process and to discuss the upcoming legislative agenda. "If he should win this election, it would be irresponsible for him not to get ready to take office," said Franken spokeswoman Colleen Murray. "Minnesota deserves a senator who is ready to take office on Day One."

Nov 10, 2008
Some Star Wars Talk
Posted By Ashley

If you're anything like me, you're so eager for the "change" that you've been refreshing your Washington Post homepage every hour to see if any updates have come from the Obama administration. We know it will come, but after only a week after the elections, nothing has been laid out in too much detail.

The latest talk has been about missile defense -- which was pursued aggressively by the Bush administration. Will Obama pursue sites in Eastern Europe? Will he help ax the program that's been called his "first foreign policy test."

Plutomium Page over at Daily Kos wrote today about potential changes in national security strategy that the new President-Elect Obama could pursue, including missile defense. She cites analysis by Lt. Gen. Robert Gard, the chairman of our sister organization the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

Writes Plutomium Page:

Now, about cutting funding to national missile defense: bravo. Let's turn to Lt. Gen. Robert Gard...He's been talking about missile defense for a while now, and his latest analysis came out about three weeks ago.

[Gard states that] "Despite the Bush administration's investment of an estimated $60 billion since 2001, U.S. national missile defense continues to be an unnecessary and counterproductive enterprise. Testing objectives consistently are not met, cost overruns and scheduling delays are rampant, and relations between the United States and Russia are worse than at any time since the end of the Cold War, thanks in no small part to squabbling over the proposed third missile defense site in Europe."

He recommends three basic changes. Please click the link above for the details; basically, shift spending to systems countering existing threats, dissolve the Missile Defense Agency, and "spend political capital" on diplomacy.

For more on missile defense, check out this op-ed from Council staff Katie Mounts and Travis Sharp, and our resources over at the Center.

Nov 10, 2008
European Missile Defense is a Loser
Posted By Travis

Katie Mounts and I published this article through MinutemanMedia.org a few weeks ago. Enjoy!

European Missile Defense is a Loser
By Katie Mounts and Travis Sharp
October 15, 2008

The Bush administration has tried for years to build support for a long-range missile defense system in Europe. White House officials claim that the system will protect America’s allies from an Iranian missile attack. Unfortunately, the proposed system is plagued with budgetary, technical, and political problems, and actually poses serious risks to American security.

The Pentagon organization responsible for missile defense, the Missile Defense Agency, estimates the European system will cost $4 billion over the next five years. There is reason to suspect that this estimate is grossly underestimated, however, due to the Agency’s method of building weapons.

This method is known as “spiral development,” a process where development and production unfold simultaneously. It is equivalent to Ford or Chevrolet assembling a new car and letting people drive it around town without first completing engineering blueprints or testing the design. This haphazard approach inevitably results in multiple changes during production. Each time the Pentagon goes back to the drawing board, it costs American taxpayers millions of dollars.

Nov 10, 2008
Been spending most my life...
Posted By Travis

...living in a defense wonk's paradise. (Cross posted from Iraq Insider)

A lot of people think the election of Barack Obama is a gift from above. I wouldn't disagree with that point of view, although I have a very different reason for feeling excited that the era of George W. Bush is coming to an end.

When a new president and congress enter office, it can only mean one thing: GAO Congressional and Presidential Transition Reports on Defense Policy!!!!!!

Like manna from heaven, these reports provide analysts with these really cool things called facts, figures, and data sets. No, they don't spell out defense concepts in lame acronyms like S-U-R-G-E. No, they don't coin cutesy slogans which suggest that if you don't think the United States should rigidly tie its defense budget to 4% of GDP, you hate freedom and like to kill puppies.

Facts. Figures. Data sets. I'm sure new White House and Hill foreign policy staffers will read these reports diligently before starting their new jobs, right? As much fun as it would be to have another Sesame Street clique parallel park the clown car at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. on January 20, I'm really feeling like I want to move past that part of my life.

Seriously. Stop looking at Wonkette and go read GAO reports. Right now.