Recent News
Pollster Mark Mellman’s Analysis of 2012 Presidential Race
Jan 27, 2012
Well-regarded pollster Mark Mellman* recently gave an upbeat look at President Obama’s re-election.
He disagrees with those who think that Obama is “toast” (Mellman spoke before the South Carolina primary, which if anything reinforced his calculations).
Mellman gives the following reasons;
1. Americans are reluctant to throw a party out of the white House after one term. Only one President in the last century has lost a second party term (Jimmy Carter in 1980; George H.W. Bush was running for a fourth Republican term in 1992).
2. Per capita real disposable income, rather than unemployment numbers, is the best indicator of re-election prospects, and while the income numbers have not dramatically increased, they have increased enough for Obama to be re-elected.
The facts don’t get in the way of another GOP debate
Jan 27, 2012
On Monday night, the Republican candidates for President met in Tampa, Florida to spar over peddling influence, debate tax returns, and generally confuse the American public about the supposed decline of the United States Navy and the bankruptcy of the Obama administration’s policy toward Iran.
During the debate, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney said:
"Our Navy is now smaller than any time since 1917."
Though it is true that the United States Navy has seen fluctuations in the total number of ships over the past 95 years, the United States Navy is still by far the most advanced and most powerful navy in the world. It also turns out the Navy was smaller than today at the end of Fiscal Years 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. In 2009, when the Navy had 285 active surface ships (the same as today), then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote in Foreign Affairs (Jan/Feb 2009, Vol. 88 Issue 1, p28-40) that:
“As much as the U.S. Navy has shrunk since the end of the Cold War, for example, in terms of tonnage, its battle fleet is still larger than the next 13 navies combined — and 11 of those 13 navies are U.S. allies or partners.”
Iran is ready to return to nuclear talks: What We're Reading Now
Jan 27, 2012
IRAN
Iran is ready to return to nuclear talks
Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press - January 27, 2012
Iran is ready to revive talks with the U.S. and other world powers, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday, but suggested that Tehran's foes will have to make compromises to prevent negotiations from again collapsing in stalemate.
Israel Senses Bluffing in Iran’s Threats of Retaliation
Ethan Bronner, New York Times - January 26, 2012
Israeli intelligence estimates, backed by academic studies, have cast doubt on the widespread assumption that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would set off a catastrophic set of events like a regional conflagration, widespread acts of terrorism and sky-high oil prices.
How Iran could beat up on America's superior military
Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor - January 26, 2012
America's defense budget is roughly 90 times bigger than Iran's. But Iran has a well-honed strategy of asymmetric warfare.
KOREAN PENINSULA
US team due in NKorea in March to resume hunt for troops missing in action from Korean War
Associated Press - January 26, 2012
U.S. military personnel will travel to North Korea in March to restart efforts to recover thousands of servicemen missing from the 1950-53 Korean War, the Defense Department said Thursday.
Ahmadinejad Says Iran Is Ready for Nuclear Talks: What We're Reading Now
Jan 26, 2012
IRAN
Ahmadinejad Says Iran Is Ready for Nuclear TalksJ. David Goodman, New York Times - January 26, 2012 Even as he became the latest and most senior member of the Iranian government to publicly declare his readiness for nuclear talks, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday lashed out at the West over its tough new economic sanctions that he said have hurt the Iranian people.
IAEA talks in Tehran to test Iran's nuclear defiance
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters - January 26, 2012
A rare visit by senior U.N. nuclear inspectors next week raises pressure on Iran to address suspicions it is trying to develop atomic weapons, though Western powers that are piling on sanctions expect no significant breakthrough.
Can Sanctions Alone Get Iran To Negotiate
Tom Gjelten, NPR - January 25, 2012
In an effort to bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program through economic pain, both the U.S. and the European Union have imposed sanctions that should make it harder for Iran to sell its oil. But the global oil business is unpredictable, and sanctions are no guarantee.
Iran won't move toward nuclear weapon in 2012 - ISIS report
Tabassum Zakaria and Mark Hosenball, Reuters - January 26, 2012
Iran is unlikely to move toward building a nuclear weapon this year because it does not yet have the capability to produce enough weapon-grade uranium, a draft report by the Institute for Science and International Security said on Wednesday.
U.S. Shifts Policy On Nuclear Pacts: What We're Reading Now
Jan 25, 2012
IRAN
Sanctions Against Iran Grow Tighter, but What’s the Next Step?
Helene Cooper, New York Times - January 24, 2012
As the Obama administration and its European allies toughened economic sanctions against Iran on Monday — blocking its access to the world financial system and undermining its critical oil and gas industry — officials on both sides of the Atlantic acknowledge that their last-ditch effort has only a limited chance of persuading Tehran to abandon what the West fears is its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Iran says sanctions to fail, repeats Hormuz threat
Mitra Amiri, Reuters - January 25, 2012
Iranian politicians said on Tuesday they expected the European Union to backtrack on its oil embargo and repeated a threat to close the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane if the West succeeds in preventing Tehran from exporting crude.
KOREAN PENINSULA
U.S. still taking cautious approach to North Korea aid
John M. Glionna, Los Angeles Times - January 24, 2012
In mid-December, U.S. negotiators came the closest they'd come in two years to resuming humanitarian food aid for millions of undernourished North Koreans.
UNITED STATES
U.S. Shifts Policy on Nuclear Pacts
Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal - January 25, 2012
The Obama administration, in advanced negotiations on nuclear-cooperation agreements with Jordan and Vietnam, has withdrawn a demand that these countries forgo their rights to produce nuclear fuel, senior U.S. officials said.
American Democracy on Trial?
Jan 24, 2012
Counting the results
Well, not really.
But in some instances, yes, particularly very tight elections where the candidates are divided by only a handful of votes.
Take the recent Iowa Republican presidential caucus results, for example. But more on that in a second.
Republicans have different concerns. Supposedly worried about illegal voting, regarding which there is very little evidence, Republicans in many states have added new legal hurdles to voting, such as requiring picture ID’s and limited advance voting in an election.
This is not good government; this is targeted at low-income, minority voters and seniors without drivers’ licenses who will find it more difficult to vote and are more likely to vote Democratic.
What Republicans, indeed all Americans, should be concerned about is the inability of the American voting apparatus to get the count right in a timely fashion in extremely close elections.
Amid New Sanctions, Obama Confronts the Challenges of Diplomacy with Iran: What We're Reading Now
Jan 24, 2012
IRAN
Bid to restart Iran nuclear talks pits Western demands against Tehran’s defiance
Ali Akbar Dareini, AP - January 24, 2012
The last time Iran’s nuclear envoys held talks with the U.S. and other world powers, the negotiations limped along until a parting shot by the Islamic Republic: Its labs boosted the enrichment levels of uranium in reply to demands for a full-scale freeze.
Amid New Sanctions, Obama Confronts the Challenges of Diplomacy with Iran
Tony Karon, TIME Magazine (Blog) - January 23, 2012
Despite the deafening racket of the mass-media drums of war, neither President Obama nor the Pentagon has an appetite for a confrontation with Iran that could unleash havoc across the Middle East and would at best simply delay Tehran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Foreign Policy: Stop The Madness
Yousaf Butt, NPR - January 23, 2012
Olli Heinonen is alarmed that Iran has begun producing 20 percent enriched uranium at a new, deeply buried site, and calculates that Iranian scientists could further purify the material to the 90 percent enrichment needed for a bomb in about six months' time.
Bank Tejarat Banned by U.S., EU in Move Stifling Iran Trade
Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, Bloomberg Businessweek - January 24, 2012
The U.S. and European Union took steps to cut off from the international financial system Bank Tejarat, the last institution financing high-volume exports and imports between Iran and Europe.
Europe bans Iranian oil imports in push to curtail nuclear program: What We're Reading Now
Jan 23, 2012
IRAN
Europe bans Iranian oil imports in push to curtail nuclear program
Edward Cody, The Washington Post - January 23, 2012
Europe banned the import of Iranian oil Monday and froze Europe-based assets of the Central Bank of Iran, intensifying an international campaign to choke Iran’s economy and force the radical Islamic government to dispel fears that it is working to develop nuclear weapons.
U.S. aircraft carrier sails through strategic Strait of Hormuz
David S. Cloud, Los Angeles Times - January 22, 2012
A U.S. aircraft carrier sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the first transit since Iran warned American ships this year against using the strategic waterway.
Iran gets the message from Washington
David Ignatius, The Washington Post - January 20, 2012
The Iran nuclear crisis is far from over, but Tehran appears to have made a subtle blink — backing away from its threat a few weeks ago to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to escalating U.S. sanctions.
"What we know suggests the development of nuclear weapons'
Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic - January 20, 2012
Yukiya Amano, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is not shrinking in the face of Iranian denials. Once again, he has asserted his suspicions that Iran's goal is a nuclear-weapons capability.
U.S., Russia arms negotiators plan stability talks: What We're Reading Now
Jan 13, 2012
IRAN
Killing Iranian Nuclear Scientists is Counterproductive and Wrong
Ali Vaez & Charles Ferguson, The Atlantic - January 13, 2012
Wednesday's assassination of Mostafa Ahmadi-Rowshan makes nuclear negotiations more difficult and a nuclear Iran more likely
Who Assassinated an Iranian Nuclear Scientist? Israel Isn't Telling
Karl Vick & Aaron J. Klein, TIME Magazine (Blog) - January 12, 2012
Like three previous Iranian scientists ambushed on their morning commute, the latest nuclear expert to die on his way to work was a victim of Israel's Mossad, Western intelligence sources tell TIME.
Iran to Let In U.N. Atomic Inspectors
Jay Solomon, WSJ - January 13, 2012
Iran agreed to host a high-level team of United Nation's nuclear inspectors later this month, Western diplomats said, a surprise development that could help to curb building tensions with the West.
Iran nuclear expert buried as Russia warns on sanctions
BBC - January 13, 2012
Russia has warned that new sanctions and any military action against Iran over its nuclear programme would be seen as attempted regime change.
Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated, and What it Means: What We're Reading Now
Jan 11, 2012
IRAN
Clinton slams Iran nuclear move, urges serious talks
Reuters - January 11, 2012
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday Iran's decision to enrich uranium near the city of Qom was "especially troubling" and urged Tehran to return to serious talks with Western powers over its atomic program.
Another Iranian nuclear scientist killed: part of 'covert war'?
Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor - January 11,2012
Iranian officials decried the assassination of a scientist involved in Iran's nuclear program in Tehran today, claiming that Israel was behind the latest strike as part of a broader covert war waged by the US, Israel, and the West to slow Iran's nuclear efforts.
Another Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated, and What it Means
Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic - January 11, 2012
It's groundhog day in Tehran. Another nuclear scientist, this one identified as Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, who worked at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, was killed when an explosive was attached to his car. Several questions arise:
Beijing and Tehran's Coming Divorce
Ilan Berman, WSJ - January 11, 2012
Is China finally coming around on Iran? For years, Beijing's steady backing has helped the Iranian regime frustrate international efforts to isolate and penalize it for its nuclear ambitions. This month, however, there are heartening signs that China is reassessing its longstanding strategic partnership with the Islamic Republic.
