National Academy of Sciences Report Sheds Light on Maintaining U.S. Nuclear Arsenal Without Testing
Apr 03, 2012
by Tara Chandra
The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) brought the issue of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) back into the arms control spotlight on March 30 with the release of a much-anticipated report that evaluated the technical ability of the United States to maintain a safe and reliable nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing. A summary of the report on the CTBT and a link to the full 215-page text can be found here. This 2012 report is an update to the 2002 study that was conducted on the same subject.
The CTBT was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in September 1996. The United States was the first country to sign the treaty in 1996, but it was rejected by the Senate in 1999. Although many of the mechanisms necessary to implement and enforce the Treaty are already in place, it cannot enter into force until 44 states deemed to be “nuclear capable” sign and ratify it. Among those that have yet to ratify the treaty are the United States, Iran, China, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and Egypt.
Opponents of the Treaty argue that the United States can’t ensure the safety, security, and reliability of its nuclear arsenal without testing. They also argue that the treaty is unverifiable.
The NAS report refutes both claims. It concludes "that the United States is now better able to maintain a safe and effective nuclear stockpile and to monitor clandestine nuclear-explosion testing than at any time in the past."
Regarding the maintenance of the arsenal, the report states: “Provided that sufficient resources and a national commitment to stockpile stewardship are in place, the committee judges that the United States has the technical capabilities to maintain a safe, secure, and reliable stockpile of nuclear weapons into the foreseeable future without nuclear-explosion testing.”
The U.S. has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992. Both Republican and Democratic Presidents have maintained this unilateral moratorium and this has not lessened the crediblity of the U.S. nuclear deterrent.
The NAS report also refutes the claim that it is not possible to verify compliance with the Treaty: “The United States has technical capabilities to monitor nuclear explosions in four environments – underground, underwater, in the atmosphere, and in space.” The panel goes on to say that “the status of U.S national monitoring and the International Monitoring System has improved to levels better than predicted in 1999.”
Lastly, those who continue to oppose CTBT ratification argue that the other critical states that have not yet ratified the CTBT will continue to test, while the United States will be bound by the treaty’s constraints. To date, 157 countries have ratified the Treaty, with the notable exceptions of the United States, China, North Korea, Iran, India, and Pakistan. However, the leaders of many of these non-ratifying nations have stated either publicly or privately that they would strongly consider ratification if the United States were to ratify the Treaty.
The United States has the best developed and most frequently tested nuclear arsenal of any other country, so by locking in a worldwide moratorium on testing, we would ensure ourselves an enormous edge. Furthermore, through ratification, we will strengthen our ability to deter and detect cheating and prevent other nuclear armed states from improving their arsenals through testing.
Moreover, as the unofficial “enforcer” of the global non-proliferation regime, the United States needs to lead by example. Ratifying the CTBT will strengthen U.S. leadership on non-proliferation, thereby putting us in a stronger bargaining position when seeking international support for dealing with rogue states.
Iran Seeks to Boost Nuclear Work in Bunker: Diplomats - What We're Reading Now
Feb 24, 2012
Iran
Iran Seeks to Boost Nuclear Work in Bunker: Diplomats
Frederik Dahl, Reuters - February 23, 2012
Iran is believed to be carrying out preparations to expand nuclear activity deep inside a mountain, diplomats say, in a further sign of defiance in the face of intensifying Western pressure to curb its sensitive uranium enrichment drive.
U.S. Does Not Believe Iran is Trying to Build Nuclear Bomb
Ken Dilanian, Los Angeles Times - February 23, 2012
As U.S. and Israeli officials talk publicly about the prospect of a military strike against Iran's nuclear program, one fact is often overlooked: U.S. intelligence agencies don't believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb.
Up in the Air
The Economist - February 25, 2012
The crisis has been a long time coming. Iran started exploring paths to nuclear weaponry before the fall of the shah in 1979. Ten years ago the outside world learned of the plants it was building to provide “heavy” water (used in reactors that produce plutonium) and enriched uranium, which is necessary for some types of nuclear reactor, but also for nuclear weapons. The enrichment facilities have grown in capability, capacity and number; there has been work on detonators, triggers and missile technology, too.
Formerly Secret Telexes Reveal Iran's Early Use of Deceit in Nuclear Program
Joby Warrick, Washington Post - February 25, 2012
The reason for the unusual purchase — 220 pounds of highly caustic fluorine gas — was never explained, but someone at Iran’s Sharif University was clearly anxious to collect. For months, the mysterious buyer bombarded a British supply company with telexes, demanding to know when his 45 canisters would arrive.
Planning Underway for Other 'Options' on Iran
Herb Kenon, Jerusalem Post - February 23, 2012
Not only are all options “on the table” regarding Iran, but planning is under way to ensure those other options can be exercised if it becomes necessary, US Ambassador Dan Shapiro said on Thursday.
Obama's Golden Nuclear Option: What We're Reading Now
Feb 07, 2012
IRAN
Iran boosts nuclear work in bunker: diplomats
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters - February 6, 2012
Iran is believed to be expanding uranium enrichment activity deep inside a mountain, diplomatic sources said Monday, a move likely to add to tension with Western powers that suspect Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons capability.
Iran Calls New US Sanctions 'Psychological War'
Nasser Karimi, Associated Press - February 7, 2012
Iran has dismissed the new U.S. sanctions on Tehran, with the Foreign Ministry spokesman saying Tuesday they are part of a "psychological war" meant to sow discontent among Iranians and insisting the measures would not halt the country's nuclear program.
Netanyahu Says Only Military Strength Guarantees Security in Middle East
Jonathan Ferziger, Bloomberg - February 6, 2012
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who yesterday announced plans to visit the U.S. in March, said turmoil in neighboring Arab states and threats from Iran show that Israel must build up its military.
Parisa Hafezi, Reuters - February 7, 2012
Iran castigated its U.S. adversary on Tuesday over new financial measures to disrupt Iranian commerce, and a default on payment for rice purchases highlighted the encroachment of sanctions on the staples of everyday life.
Keep Sharron Angle of Nevada out of the Senate
Aug 25, 2010
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is in the closest race of his political career this fall – and it is very important to us to help him win.
He is up against Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle, who has very strange views on national security issues. Despite this, Angle has come from behind with support from the far right to defeat more mainstream Republican opponents.
If Angle wins, it will be major victory for the extreme wing of the Republican Party.
Support Harry Reid today; don’t let us lose this important seat to the Tea Party.
In addition to Republican nominee Sharron Angle, Nevada’s ballot currently includes four independents and a certified Tea Party candidate. Voters also have the option to choose “none of these candidates.”
Angle’s views are on the far, far-right. Before her new DC handlers changed it, Angle’s website included this statement about the United Nations: “The U.N. has been captured by the far left and has become ineffective and costly. The U.N. continually threatens U.S. sovereignty, with endless rhetoric and treaties and it has now become the “umpire” on fraudulent science, such as global warming. The United State needs to withdraw from the United Nations and work solely with America’s willing allies.”
Hat Tip to Utah CTBT Organizers!
Mar 08, 2010
Utah Sens. Hatch and Bennett will be key in approval of CTBT
Congrats to all those working for CTBT ratification in Utah, as the Utah state House just unanimously passed a resolution (HR-4) urging the U.S. Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
From the resolution:
"United States ratification of the CTBT would be a significant step towards preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, reducing nuclear weapons arsenals worldwide, and building confidence among nations that abolition of nuclear weapons can someday be achieved,
…further nuclear weapons testing is not necessary to maintain the integrity, effectiveness, and deterrence value of the existing United States nuclear weapons stockpile,
…as part of its recognition of the 50th anniversary of nuclear weapons testing at the Nevada Test Site, in the 2001 General Session, the 54th Legislature of the state of Utah expressed, 'the fervent desire and commitment to assure that such a legacy will never be repeated,'
…the House of Representatives of the state of Utah strongly urges the United States Senate to promptly give its advice and consent for ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty."
As experts have identified, support from Utah’s two Republican Senators – Orrin Hatch and Bob Bennet – will be key in new efforts for Senate ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Both Hatch and Bennett voted against the agreement when it was first brought to the Senate in 1999. Though the primary concerns that led to that first failed vote no longer hold water, the Senators will be under significant pressure from Republican leadership not to break ranks with the party conservatives who will oppose the agreement.
Today’s unanimous vote is a giant leap in the right direction for both Utah and the country, and it demonstrates the truly bipartisan consensus that exists for a smarter nuclear weapons policy that addresses today's national security challenges.
From the Salt Lake City Tribune:
Much happens in a week
Sep 22, 2009
Last Thursday, President Obama boldly killed President Bush’s misguided missile defense deployment in Europe, and this Thursday, he continues to push his nuclear agenda forward at a United Nations Security Council summit meeting.
The meeting, the first of its kind chaired by a U.S. president, is designed by Obama to continue the momentum toward nuclear security and arms control that the President initiated in his unforgettable Prague speech in April.
At the United Nations, the U.S. is putting forth a resolution (the draft can be seen here) that calls upon all countries to pursue “a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.” In addition, the resolution calls for universal ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and promotes a breadth of arms control and nonproliferation initiatives.
Care to show your support for President Obama’s nuclear agenda? You can send a message to the White House supporting his commitment to pragmatic steps on the way to a world free of nuclear weapons here.
Sen. McCain and Support for CTBT
Jul 27, 2009
Just in from the Global Security Newswire:
U.S. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) said he no longer opposes the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, potentially putting the Obama administration one vote closer to ratifying the international pledge to cease all nuclear weapons tests, the Associated Press reported.
McCain said he would consider voting to approve the ban, which he voted against a decade ago although he said he had lingering doubts. "The devil is in the details," he said. "If we could get it done, if it is acceptable, then it is a step forward on the path to the president's goal and mine of a nuclear-free world."
If McCain supported the treaty, Obama would only need six additional Republican votes to be able to pass the ban, which he has made part of his nonproliferation agenda.
...Another potentially undecided vote is Senator Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), who, despite his outspoken advocacy for nuclear nonproliferation, says he has not decided whether he would support a comprehensive ban on testing.
Strategy in the Senate: CTBT
Apr 15, 2009
John just had another great article published by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, this time on a strategy for Senate approval of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
One of the major priorities for the arms control community in the upcoming years, ratification of the CTBT will be no small feat. With 67 votes in the Senate necessary to approve ratification, progressives will face "enormous political hurdles" securing the final seven votes of the 67 - and the initial 60 already assumes yea votes from all Democrats, both Independents, yet-to-be-seated Al Franken (D), and Arlen Specter (R), who voted for the treaty when it was first brought to the Senate in 1999.
How will those final seven votes be obtained?
John attempts to answer that question in his latest article, and he projects that the key to success will likely "not be facts or persuasive arguments, but rather a painstakingly and carefully negotiated deal."
Find the complete article online on the website of the Bulletin.
Obama's revolutionary speech in Prague
Apr 06, 2009
What a week for arms control.
Amid the cacophony of voices out there on arms control discussing issues from North Korea's recent missile test to allegations against Iran, and just days after his joint announcement with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev to pursue a successor to START, President Obama's voice rang loud and clear this weekend in Prague when he gave what could be the most significant speech of the nuclear age.
Just one highlight?
“As the only nuclear power to have used a nuclear weapon, the United States has a moral responsibility to act. We cannot succeed in this endeavor alone, but we can lead it, we can start it...I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”
Not only did he call for a world free of nuclear weapons, but he explicitly outlined steps that reverse the Bush administration policy that made nuclear weapons a central tenet of American national security.
These steps included:
--A new treaty with Russia this year to reduce nuclear warheads and stockpiles – and then to move to further cuts with the other nuclear powers;
-- "Immediately and aggressively” pursuing ratification of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty;
--Ending the production of fissile materials that can be used in nuclear weapons;
--Strengthening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty;
--Expanding international inspections to detect treaty violations;
--Securing all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years;
--Hosting a Global Summit on Nuclear Security within the next year.
Want to write a letter to your members of Congress, asking them to support this plan? Click here.