Pollster Mark Mellman’s Analysis of 2012 Presidential Race
Jan 27, 2012

Well-regarded pollster Mark Mellman* recently gave an upbeat look at President Obama’s re-election.  

He disagrees with those who think that Obama is “toast” (Mellman spoke before the South Carolina primary, which if anything reinforced his calculations).

Mellman gives the following reasons;

1.    Americans are reluctant to throw a party out of the white House after one term. Only one President in the last century has lost a second party term (Jimmy Carter in 1980; George H.W. Bush was running for a fourth Republican term in 1992).

2.     Per capita real disposable income, rather than unemployment numbers, is the best indicator of re-election prospects, and while the income numbers have not dramatically increased, they have increased enough for Obama to be re-elected.