Is a world free of nuclear weapons a realistic dream?
May 13, 2012

By Andrew Brown

The Canberra Commission, a group of international experts appointed by the Australian government, reported in 1996: “A nuclear weapon free world can be secured and maintained through political commitment, and anchored in an enduring and binding legal framework.” The political commitment necessary will depend on international public pressure to end a complacent reliance on weapons of unprecedented destructiveness and will require, as the commissioners stated, irrevocable treaty arrangements that are rigorously enforced.  

How feasible are those treaty arrangements is not clear at this time.  What is certain is that it will need a sea-change in international relations and adherence to international laws that is going to take generations and will not happen in one revolutionary step.

JFK’s Nuclear Proliferation Warnings: Up to 25 Countries With Nuclear Weapons
May 10, 2012

Authored by Lt. General (USA, Ret.) Robert G. Gard, Jr.

On 21 March 1963, at what was then called a “news conference,” President Kennedy said that he was “haunted by the feeling that by 1970 … there may be ten nuclear powers instead of four, and by 1975 fifteen or twenty;” and in a subsequent response, he extended the estimate: “I can see the possibility in the 1970s … of a world in which 15 or 20 or 25 nations may have these [nuclear] weapons. I regard that as the greatest possible danger and hazard.”

These comments were made in the context of President Kennedy’s support for a ban on the testing of nuclear weapons. In addition to his concern over the dangers of radioactive fallout, Kennedy believed that such a ban would prevent other countries from obtaining nuclear weapons. He had advocated a cessation of nuclear weapons testing since 1956, and had taken a strong stand on the issue during the 1960 presidential campaign; and following his election, he had pledged that the U.S. would not resume nuclear testing in the atmosphere.

Following more than eight years of sporadic negotiations, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom and the United States on 5 August 1963 signed the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibited the testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere, in space and under water. In deference to the Soviet Union’s adamant opposition to on-site inspections, underground testing was permitted so long as fallout would be confined to the geographic limits of the country conducting the test. The Senate approved the Treaty 80-19 on 23 September, and President Kennedy signed the ratification on 7 October, the month before he was assassinated on 22 November 1963.

Experts Believe Iran Conflict Is Less Likely: What We're Reading Now
Apr 30, 2012

Iran

Experts Believe Iran Conflict Is Less Likely
James Risen, New York Times - April 30, 2012
After a winter of alarm over the possibility that a military conflict over the Iranian nuclear program might be imminent, American officials and outside analysts now believe that the chances of war in the near future have significantly decreased.

U.S. signals major shift on Iran nuclear program
Paul Richter, Los Angeles Times - April 27, 2012
In what would be a significant concession, Obama administration officials say they could support allowing Iran to maintain a crucial element of its disputed nuclear program if Tehran took other major steps to curb its ability to develop a nuclear bomb.

Iran: IAEA Talks For May 13-14 In Vienna
Associated Press - April 28, 2012
A new round of talks between Tehran and the U.N.'s nuclear agency will be held in Vienna on May 13-14, Iran's state TV reported Saturday in a signal of possible progress after separate negotiations resumed with world powers over the country's controversial nuclear program.

Israel ex-spy warns against "messianic" war on Iran
Dan Williams, Reuters - April 28, 2012
A former Israeli spymaster has branded the country's leaders as "messianic" and unfit to tackle the Iranian nuclear program, in the strongest criticism from a security veteran of threats to launch a preemptive war.

You Are Invited: Council for a Livable World Free Nuclear Weapons Themed Movie Series
Apr 19, 2012

In honor of the Council for a Livable World 50th Anniversary, we are hosting a free movie series designed to educate and entertain people interested in issues of nuclear weapons and global security.

In the six weeks leading up to our 50th anniversary celebration on June 6, we will be screening one movie each Thursday night starting at 6:00PM in the Council for a Livable World’s office conference room.  

Guests of all ages are welcome to attend one, two or all six films. Be thrilled, chilled and amazed.

Please RSVP to mfargo@armscontrolcenter.org by no later than the Tuesday preceding the movie showing that you wish to attend so we can supply ample refreshments. We will send reminders each week if you indicate an interest in any one of the films.

Films and showtimes below the jump.

Washington, DC after nuclear bomb explodes
Mar 27, 2012

Gov't report: DC nuke blast wouldn't destroy city

By ALICIA A. CALDWELL, Associated Press - Tuesday, March 27, 2012

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/03/27/national/w003933D74.DTL

Hollywood has destroyed Washington — or New York or Los Angeles — lots of times with nuclear bombs detonated by terrorists. It turns out to be harder in real life.

Thinking about the unthinkable, a U.S. government study analyzed the likely effects from terrorists setting off a 10-kiloton nuclear device a few blocks north of the White House. It predicted terrible devastation for roughly one-half mile in every direction, with buildings reduced to rubble the way that World War II bombing raids destroyed parts of Berlin. But outside that blast zone, the study concluded, even such a nuclear explosion would be pretty survivable.

"It's not the end of the world," said Randy Larsen, a retired Air Force colonel and founding director of the Institute for Homeland Security. "It's not a Cold War scenario."

Russian Official: No Missile Deal at NATO Summit: What We're Reading Now
Mar 14, 2012

Iran

Most Americans would back U.S. strike over Iran nuclear weapon: poll
Jeff Mason, Reuters - March 13, 2012
A majority of Americans would support military action against Iran if there were evidence that Tehran is building nuclear weapons, even if such action led to higher gasoline prices, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Tuesday.

Three of Four American Oppose Israeli Strike on Iran
Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, Bloomberg - March 13, 2012
An Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear program is opposed by three out of four Americans, according to a poll by the University of Maryland and the Program on International Policy Attitudes.

Iran May Not Open a Site to Inspectors
Rick Gladstone, New York Times - March 13, 2012
Iran signaled on Tuesday that it was unwilling to grant a request by international nuclear inspectors for unfettered access to a restricted military complex that they suspect may house a chamber designed to test explosives used in atomic weapons triggers.

Iranian-backed terror groups expanding reach in South America, warns general
Carlo Munoz, The Hill (Blog) - March 13, 2012
Iranian-backed terror groups are strengthening their ties to transnational criminal groups in South America and are working to expand their influence in the region, according to a top U.S. general.

Iran's UN fact sheet - Weapons track not confirmed: What We're Reading Now
Mar 12, 2012

Iran

Skeptics doubt U.S. can be certain about Iran's nuclear progress
Ken Dilanian, Los Angeles Times - March 11, 2012
Despite President Obama's assurances that the United States will know if Tehran begins to secretly build a nuclear bomb, some senior officials familiar with U.S. intelligence and spying capabilities in Iran are doubtful.

Israel Unveils New Bunker Buster, Hones ‘Credible’ Military Option for Iran
Barbara Opall-Rome, Defense News - March 11, 2012
Israel last week unveiled an improved precision, bunker-burrowing weapon, the latest in a series of operational upgrades aimed at honing what one official here labeled “a very credible military option” against the Iranian nuclear threat.

U.N. Won’t Back Down on Iran Nuclear Inspections
Michael Adler, The Daily Beast - March 11, 2012
The U.N. nuclear agency will not back off its demand to visit the Parchin military site even if this escalates the confrontation with Iran over its alleged nuclear-weapons work, the agency’s head Yukiya Amano told Newsweek/The Daily Beast in an exclusive interview.

Iran's UN fact sheet: Weapons track not confirmed
George Jahn, Associated Press - March 11, 2012
Nine years ago, the United States invaded Iraq after telling the world that Saddam Hussein had covert weapons programs that could build nuclear arms. In the end, nothing was found. Today, acting on similar fears, Israel is threatening to attack Iran.

North Korea agrees to 'nuclear moratorium: What We're Reading Now
Feb 29, 2012

Korean Peninsula

North Korea agrees to 'nuclear moratorium'
BBC News - February 29, 2012
North Korea has agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, as well as nuclear and long-range missile tests, US and North Korean officials say. The US State Department said the North had also agreed to allow UN inspectors to monitor its reactor in Yongbyon to verify compliance with the measures. In return, Washington is set to provide Pyongyang with some 240,000 tonnes of food aid.

Amid Tensions, U-2 Spy Planes Keep Watch on NKorea
CBS News - February 29, 2012
As a sleek black U-2 roars back from a mission, Pontiac cars zoom along the runway to help it touch down using a method unchanged for more than 50 years ago when this Cold War-era aircraft was cutting-edge.

Iran

U.S. Sees Iran Attacks as Likely if Israel Strikes
Thom Shanker, Helene Cooper, Ethan Bronner, New York Times - February 29, 2012
American officials who have assessed the likely Iranian responses to any attack by Israel on its nuclear program believe that Iran would retaliate by launching missiles on Israel and terrorist-style attacks on United States civilian and military personnel overseas.

Obama Likely to Resist Pressure to Futher Toughen Iran Stance
Paul Richter and Christi Parsons, LA Times - February 28, 2012
The White House indicated Tuesday that President Obama would resist pressure for a tougher Iran policy coming from Israel and some U.S. lawmakers who argue that Tehran should not be allowed to acquire even the capability to eventually develop a nuclear weapon.

Noted nuclear historian Richard Rhodes on recent report on nuclear reductions
Feb 17, 2012

Dear President Obama:

I am the author of The Making of the Atomic Bomb, which won a Pulitzer Prize, and three other narratives of the Nuclear Age, most recently The Twilight of the Bombs. I write to urge you to reduce the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal to 300 weapons (or fewer), as a recent AP news story reports you are considering.

I understand that your advisers might perceive this option to be a difficult choice in an election year. Certainly you will be attacked by members of the Republican Party as “weak on defense” or worse. That has been a standard attack against Democratic Presidents for at least the past 50 years. I hope it will not dissuade you.

For most of the past three decades, I have researched and analyzed the history of U.S. nuclear policy. I’ve concluded that a major driver of the nuclear arms race, and a major sustainer of our current disastrously high levels of nuclear weapons, has been domestic politics—the “weak on defense” argument, that is. You are in a position dramatically to change that paradigm.

A risky bid on tough Iran sanctions: What We're Reading Now
Feb 15, 2012

IRAN

A risky bid on tough Iran sanctions
Julie Pace and Anne Gearan, Associated Press - February 15, 2012
The United States and Europe are considering unprecedented punishment against Iran that could immediately cripple the country's financial lifeline. But that extreme option in the banking world would come with costs.

Iran Leader to Announce Atomic Steps
Rick Gladstone, New York Times - February 14, 2012
Iran signaled on Tuesday that it had made further advances in the country’s disputed nuclear energy program, announcing that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would reveal “key nuclear achievements” on Wednesday. An Iranian news agency said he was likely to proclaim that a new uranium enrichment plant built inside a mountain near the holy city of Qum was “fully operational.”

Blasts in Bangkok Add to Suspicions About Iran
Thomas Fuller and Rick Gladstone, New York Times - February 14, 2012
A series of explosions rocked a residential neighborhood here on Tuesday, leading the Thai authorities to a cache of bombs in a rented house and the capture of two men who the Thai police said carried Iranian passports. Thai officials said that two other suspects, whom they believed to be Iranians, were being sought, and that one of them had fled to neighboring Malaysia.

MIDDLE EAST

U.S. Steps Up Watch of Syria Chemical Weapons
Adam Entous and Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal - February 15, 2012
The U.S. and some Mideast allies are intensifying surveillance of Syria's chemical and biological depots amid fears that the weapons could go loose if unrest escalates out of control.