Pollster Mark Mellman’s Analysis of 2012 Presidential Race
Jan 27, 2012
Well-regarded pollster Mark Mellman* recently gave an upbeat look at President Obama’s re-election.
He disagrees with those who think that Obama is “toast” (Mellman spoke before the South Carolina primary, which if anything reinforced his calculations).
Mellman gives the following reasons;
1. Americans are reluctant to throw a party out of the white House after one term. Only one President in the last century has lost a second party term (Jimmy Carter in 1980; George H.W. Bush was running for a fourth Republican term in 1992).
2. Per capita real disposable income, rather than unemployment numbers, is the best indicator of re-election prospects, and while the income numbers have not dramatically increased, they have increased enough for Obama to be re-elected.
Iran is ready to return to nuclear talks: What We're Reading Now
Jan 27, 2012
IRAN
Iran is ready to return to nuclear talks
Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press - January 27, 2012
Iran is ready to revive talks with the U.S. and other world powers, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday, but suggested that Tehran's foes will have to make compromises to prevent negotiations from again collapsing in stalemate.
Israel Senses Bluffing in Iran’s Threats of Retaliation
Ethan Bronner, New York Times - January 26, 2012
Israeli intelligence estimates, backed by academic studies, have cast doubt on the widespread assumption that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would set off a catastrophic set of events like a regional conflagration, widespread acts of terrorism and sky-high oil prices.
How Iran could beat up on America's superior military
Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor - January 26, 2012
America's defense budget is roughly 90 times bigger than Iran's. But Iran has a well-honed strategy of asymmetric warfare.
KOREAN PENINSULA
US team due in NKorea in March to resume hunt for troops missing in action from Korean War
Associated Press - January 26, 2012
U.S. military personnel will travel to North Korea in March to restart efforts to recover thousands of servicemen missing from the 1950-53 Korean War, the Defense Department said Thursday.
Ahmadinejad Says Iran Is Ready for Nuclear Talks: What We're Reading Now
Jan 26, 2012
IRAN
Ahmadinejad Says Iran Is Ready for Nuclear TalksJ. David Goodman, New York Times - January 26, 2012 Even as he became the latest and most senior member of the Iranian government to publicly declare his readiness for nuclear talks, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday lashed out at the West over its tough new economic sanctions that he said have hurt the Iranian people.
IAEA talks in Tehran to test Iran's nuclear defiance
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters - January 26, 2012
A rare visit by senior U.N. nuclear inspectors next week raises pressure on Iran to address suspicions it is trying to develop atomic weapons, though Western powers that are piling on sanctions expect no significant breakthrough.
Can Sanctions Alone Get Iran To Negotiate
Tom Gjelten, NPR - January 25, 2012
In an effort to bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear program through economic pain, both the U.S. and the European Union have imposed sanctions that should make it harder for Iran to sell its oil. But the global oil business is unpredictable, and sanctions are no guarantee.
Iran won't move toward nuclear weapon in 2012 - ISIS report
Tabassum Zakaria and Mark Hosenball, Reuters - January 26, 2012
Iran is unlikely to move toward building a nuclear weapon this year because it does not yet have the capability to produce enough weapon-grade uranium, a draft report by the Institute for Science and International Security said on Wednesday.
U.S. Shifts Policy On Nuclear Pacts: What We're Reading Now
Jan 25, 2012
IRAN
Sanctions Against Iran Grow Tighter, but What’s the Next Step?
Helene Cooper, New York Times - January 24, 2012
As the Obama administration and its European allies toughened economic sanctions against Iran on Monday — blocking its access to the world financial system and undermining its critical oil and gas industry — officials on both sides of the Atlantic acknowledge that their last-ditch effort has only a limited chance of persuading Tehran to abandon what the West fears is its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
Iran says sanctions to fail, repeats Hormuz threat
Mitra Amiri, Reuters - January 25, 2012
Iranian politicians said on Tuesday they expected the European Union to backtrack on its oil embargo and repeated a threat to close the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane if the West succeeds in preventing Tehran from exporting crude.
KOREAN PENINSULA
U.S. still taking cautious approach to North Korea aid
John M. Glionna, Los Angeles Times - January 24, 2012
In mid-December, U.S. negotiators came the closest they'd come in two years to resuming humanitarian food aid for millions of undernourished North Koreans.
UNITED STATES
U.S. Shifts Policy on Nuclear Pacts
Jay Solomon, Wall Street Journal - January 25, 2012
The Obama administration, in advanced negotiations on nuclear-cooperation agreements with Jordan and Vietnam, has withdrawn a demand that these countries forgo their rights to produce nuclear fuel, senior U.S. officials said.
Amid New Sanctions, Obama Confronts the Challenges of Diplomacy with Iran: What We're Reading Now
Jan 24, 2012
IRAN
Bid to restart Iran nuclear talks pits Western demands against Tehran’s defiance
Ali Akbar Dareini, AP - January 24, 2012
The last time Iran’s nuclear envoys held talks with the U.S. and other world powers, the negotiations limped along until a parting shot by the Islamic Republic: Its labs boosted the enrichment levels of uranium in reply to demands for a full-scale freeze.
Amid New Sanctions, Obama Confronts the Challenges of Diplomacy with Iran
Tony Karon, TIME Magazine (Blog) - January 23, 2012
Despite the deafening racket of the mass-media drums of war, neither President Obama nor the Pentagon has an appetite for a confrontation with Iran that could unleash havoc across the Middle East and would at best simply delay Tehran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Foreign Policy: Stop The Madness
Yousaf Butt, NPR - January 23, 2012
Olli Heinonen is alarmed that Iran has begun producing 20 percent enriched uranium at a new, deeply buried site, and calculates that Iranian scientists could further purify the material to the 90 percent enrichment needed for a bomb in about six months' time.
Bank Tejarat Banned by U.S., EU in Move Stifling Iran Trade
Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, Bloomberg Businessweek - January 24, 2012
The U.S. and European Union took steps to cut off from the international financial system Bank Tejarat, the last institution financing high-volume exports and imports between Iran and Europe.
GOP contenders spar over Pakistan, foreign aid at debate: What We're Reading Now
Nov 14, 2011
IRAN
Obama vows new bid to thwart Iran nuclear effort
AP - November 13, 2011
President Barack Obama says sanctions on Iran are having "enormous bite," but he still wants to work with Russia and China to find more ways of putting pressure on Tehran to halt its nuclear program.
Politics stokes fears over Iran nuclear plans
Roula Khalaf, Financial Times - November 14, 2011
In January this year, Hillary Clinton sounded an unusually relaxed note about Iran’s nuclear programme. “The sanctions are working,” the US secretary of state declared, adding that the US authorities’ best estimate was that the programme had been “slowed down”.
Behind Iran's Nuclear Quest: An Ancient Civilization's Pride and Insecurity
Karl Vick, Time (Blog)- November 13, 2011
Every nation has its pride, but the feeling runs especially deep in Iran. There, the sense of nationhood extends back 2,500 years, to the time of Darius and Xerxes and other names that Americans might possibly have heard of somewhere — maybe in the action movie 300 — but which anchor modern Iranians to a stream of history that predates every Abrahamic religion, including Islam, and carries real implications for the nuclear issue. For outsiders, it makes the issue a lot tougher.
McManus: Facing a nuclear Iran
Doyle MacManus, LA Times (Op-Ed) - November 13, 2011
Republicans are critical of Obama's approach, but their own policies aren't that different.
US Envoy: N. Korea Talks 'Positive, Constructive': What We're Reading Now
Oct 26, 2011
IRAN
Panetta warns Iran not to meddle in Iraq
AFP -- October 26, 2011
US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Wednesday warned Iran that it should not meddle in Iraq when American forces leave the country at the end of this year.
Iran Makes New Arrests in Fraud Case
Rick Gladstone, New York Times -- October 25, 2011
The Iranian authorities have widened their investigation into what they say is a record $2.6 billion embezzlement uncovered in a network of Iranian banks last month, interrogating at least 67 people and putting 31 of them under arrest, state media reported.
NORTH KOREA
US Envoy: N. Korea Talks 'Positive, Constructive'
Voice of America -- October 25, 2011
Talks between the United States and North Korea on resuming stalled nuclear negotiations have ended in Geneva, with a U.S. official calling them "positive and constructive."
Top UN relief official urges US, NKorea to avoid humanitarian aid discussions at nuclear talks
The Washington Post -- October 24, 2011
The U.N.’s top relief official says nuclear talks in Switzerland between the United States and North Korea should avoid discussions of humanitarian assistance for the chronically hungry Asian country.
Official: May be 'weeks and months' before North Korea responds on talks
Jill Dougherty, CNN -- October 26, 2011
A senior State Department official is tempering expectations on how quickly North Korea could respond to just-concluded discussions with the United States in Geneva, Switzerland.
"Strong" IAEA report may pile pressure on Iran: What We're Reading Now
Oct 14, 2011
IRAN
"Strong" IAEA report may pile pressure on Iran
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters - October 14, 2011
he U.N. nuclear watchdog is expected to add to growing international pressure on Iran with a report next month likely to heighten suspicions about the Islamic state's atomic ambitions, Western diplomats said on Friday.
The Birth of a Bomb: A History of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions (Der Spiegel)
Der Spigel/Forbes - October 13, 2011
In the wake of the FBI’s disruption of Tehran’s plot to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the United States on American soil, many are calling on President Obama to “take action” – though it’s not quite clear what kind of action they have in mind.
Iran's Press TV claims it is being banned in UK
Raphael G. Satter, AP - October 14, 2011
British officials are preparing to ban Iran's English-language Press TV, the broadcaster claimed Friday. Regulator Ofcom confirmed that it is considering punitive action but said no decision has yet been made.
NORTH & SOUTH KOREA
South Korean President Tells Congress North Must Give up "Nuclear Ambitions"
Global Security Newswire - October 14, 2011
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak told a special joint session of the U.S. Congress on Thursday that he remained dedicated to realizing the permanent shuttering of North Korea's nuclear weapons program, the Yonhap News Agency reported
Ahmadinejad: UN nuclear agency does US bidding: What We're Reading Now
Sep 23, 2011
IRAN
EU Seeks Unconditional Atomic Talks With Iran
Global Security Newswire - September 22, 2011
The European Union on Thursday said it is willing to engage Iran in direct discussions of its atomic program "without preconditions," Agence France-Presse reported.
NORTH KOREA
N. Korea and U.S. to talk on war remains next month: report
Reuters - September 23, 2011
North Korea and the United States will resume talks next month on recovering the remains of American troops killed during the 1950-53 Korean War, South Korean media reported on Friday.
It's not all doom and gloom in Pyongyang
Andrei Lakov, Asia Times - September 23, 2011
An acquaintance recently remarked, "Only bad news comes out of North Korea." Well, this is not quite true. The mainstream media are critical indeed, but this is not a full picture. Across the globe there is a number of pro-Pyongyang news outlets that publish news which presents North Korean life in a favorable light.
UN
Ahmadinejad: UN nuclear agency does US bidding
Anne Gearan, AP - September 22, 2011
ranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the U.N. nuclear watchdog of being in the pocket of the United States and illegally releasing the names of three nuclear scientists who were then assassinated by alleged Israeli-trained killers.
What We're Reading Now
Sep 02, 2011
IRAN
Iran charm offensive fails to ease nuclear fears
Fredrik Dahl, Reuters -- September 1, 2011
An Iranian effort to show increased openness about its disputed nuclear program is doing little to dispel Western suspicions about Tehran's atomic ambitions, with one Vienna-based envoy dismissing it as a "charm offensive."
Iran is said to be trying to shelter nuclear fuel program
David Sanger, New York Times -- September 1, 2011
Iran is moving its most critical nuclear fuel production to a heavily defended underground military facility outside the holy city of Qum, where it is less vulnerable to attack from the air and, the Iranians hope, the kind of cyberattack that crippled its nuclear program, according to intelligence officials.
Afghanistan?. Check, Iraq?. Check, Iran?. Checking?
Mark Thompson, Time -- August 31, 2011
Nice to know Air Force Lieut. Colonel Leif Eckholm is keeping busy in his job inside the inner sanctum of American military power: the strategic plans and policy directorate for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Perhaps that's why he has just written
The Military Option on Iran: Be Careful What You Wish For
Peter Crail, Arms Control Now -- September 1, 2011
TIME Magazine has recently highlighted an analysis entitled “Invading Iran: Lessons from Iraq” by Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Leif Eckholm, who works in the Strategic Plans and Policy Directorate for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (the analysis was published by Stanford’s Hoover Institution, where Eckholm served as a defense fellow).
NORTH KOREA
Obama moves to sell Northrop drones to South Korea
Reuters -- September 1, 2011
The Obama administration has begun consulting Congress on plans to sell remotely piloted Global Hawk surveillance planes to South Korea, which came close to all-out war with North Korea last year, two people familiar with the matter said.
North Korea ghost town reflects deeper woes as it woos China
Jeremy Laurence, Reuters -- September 1, 2011
Long grass grows around the idle hotels, stores are covered in cobwebs and a big padlock hangs off the front of the bank at the deserted shopping centre.
