Chris Cillizza Senate line
Feb 18, 2011

Why Tim Kaine matters

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/the-line/off-the-line-michigan-on.html

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine continues to mull the prospect of a bid for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb (D) in 2012, delaying any announcement until at least next week.

What Kaine decides has obvious implications for the party's hopes of holding the Virginia seat. Kaine, a former Virginia governor, is Democrats' strongest candidate and would make a race against former Sen. George Allen (R) instantly competitive. The Democrats who might run if Kaine doesn't simply don't carry that same stature.

But, Kaine's decision also has less obvious but no less important implications for Democrats nationally.

Why?

Because Democrats haven't had all that much good news this cycle. In addition to the daunting raw numbers -- 23 Democrats (or Democratic-aligned) senators are up for reelection in 2012 as compared to just 10 Republicans --the New Mexico seat is the latest in a string of potentially problematic open seat races that have emerged.

Landing Kaine -- a top-tier recruit who has wavered on the idea of running -- would be the sort of foundational building block that Senate Democrats could build around.

Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ) Announces Retirement
Feb 10, 2011

Today, after over 16 years representing Arizona in the Senate, the No. 2 Republican Senator Jon Kyl has announced his retirement. Sen. Kyl is now the 5th Senator (and 2nd Republican) to announce retirement plans this year. His decision follows that of Sen. Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Hutchison (R-TX), Sen. Lieberman (I-CT), and Sen. Webb (D-VA).

As it is well known by now, the arms-control community has had a contentious relationship with Sen. Kyl, who has served as the face of GOP on nuclear issues. The most notable and recent clash was over New START and Senator Kyl's desire to block ratification by any means necessary - in spite of the board bipartisan support the treaty received.

Although the Council wishes Senator Kyl luck in his private endeavors, his retirement may signal hope on the horizon for further progress on President Obama's vision of a world without nuclear weapons. Kyl has long been known as an opponent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT )- if and when CTBT is brought to the Senate for ratification, will another Republican Senator step up to lead the opposition? Speculation over who will serve alongside Senator McCain begins now – stay tuned to the Council’s Senate Election Center.

Early GOP gains in 2012 Senate contests
Feb 01, 2011

Republicans, who won the House in 2010, are hoping to take the Senate in 2012. They need a net gain of three or four seats, depending on who is elected President, as Democrats now hold a 53-47 majority.

In the last month, the GOP has strengthened its position for the 2012 elections.

Just today, there are reports that six-term incumbent Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R-MT) will announce for the Senate this Saturday against Sen. Tester (D). Tester upset an incumbent Republican Senator in 2006 by fewer than 4,000 votes and is a top Republican target in 2012. President Obama is very unpopular in the state.  Rehberg was the preferred Republican "get" in this state, and the contest becomes a toss-up.

In Vermont, there is a report this morning that state Auditor Tom Salmon (R), the son of a former Democratic governor and a former Democrat himself, indicating that he is "65 percent" leaning towards running against Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). If Salmon runs, he gives the GOP a big-name candidate. Former Governor. Former Republican Governor James Douglas is also considering running

Senate retirements begin to mount up
Jan 19, 2011

Things are beginning to break in the 2012 Senate contests.

Major factors in the eventual outcome include which incumbents decide not to run again. The retirement announcements have begun.

First, the announcement that Texas Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison will step down after this term. This seat should remain in Republican hands.

Then, the startling decision by North Dakota Democratic Senator Kent Conrad to retire. A seat the Democrats were favored for now goes into the toss up or even leaning Republican column. Republicans made strong gains in the state in 2010 and hope to expand their victories.

Now, Connecticut independent Senator Joseph Lieberman has said that after four terms, he will not run again. Chalk one up for the Democrats; without the incumbent running as an independent, Democrats will be favored for the seat.

Council for a Livable World Senate Election 2012 Roundup
Jan 06, 2011

Council for a Livable World Senate Election 2012 Roundup

At this early stage, it is impossible to make realistic predictions about many of the 2012 Senate contests.

The key numbers: 21 Democrat seats are up for election in 2012 plus two independents who caucus with the Democrats.

There are only 10 seats for the Republicans to defend.

Much depends on the mood of the country in November 2012. In November 2006, the electorate turned on the Republicans. It happened again in November 2008. In November 2010, the electorate turned on the Democrats.

The mood of the country depends in a major way on the economy. A clearly growing economy that drives the unemployment rate down will produce different results than an economy remaining in the doldrums with unemployment staying stubbornly high.

The Presidential contest in 2012 will play a major role in Senate races as well. A strong Obama campaign against a weak Republican nominee will help Democratic candidates while a successful Republican effort to make Obama a one-term President will help.

Much also depends on which incumbents decide to retire and whether strong challengers decided to run.

And of course there will be surprises along the way, as there were in the 2010 campaigns.

We have a Winner in the 2010 Senate Election Contest
Nov 24, 2010

The Council for a Livable World’s 2010 Senate contest officially ended November 16th, and we have a winner. Two winners, in fact.

The first prize winner of $100 goes to Jeremy Bratt, who works for Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota.

Jeremy only got two contests wrong. Both, coincidentally, were in Ohio - the race for Governor and the Ohio 16 House contest. The $100 will come in handy, because with his boss retiring at the end of the year, he needs a new job.

Perhaps he can now become a political wizard.

There was a five-way tie for second place of those who only predicted three contests incorrectly. Using the first tie breaker by correctly guessing that there would be 53 Democratic Senators in the new Senate, the second place winner was our own Guy Stevens, Chief Operating Officer of Council for a Livable World...but...

Who is up for Senate in 2012
Nov 12, 2010

There are almost two years before the next Senate elections. The three most salient facts:

1. 21 Democrats and 2 independents who caucus with Democrats are up for re-election compared to only 10 for the Republicans.
   
2. The Senate elections will be greatly influenced by the outcome of the presidential race.
   
3. Expect Tea Party challenges to some GOP incumbents.

21 Democratic seats up for election
Akaka, Daniel K. (D-HI)
Bingaman, Jeff (D-NM)
Brown, Sherrod (D-OH)
Cantwell, Maria (D-WA)
Cardin, Benjamin L. (D-MD)
Carper, Thomas R. (D-DE)
Casey, Robert P., Jr. (D-PA)>

Council's 2010 Senate Election Analysis
Nov 04, 2010

It was a bad election that produced a worse Congress. While gridlock was often the rule in the United States Senate for the past two years, that body is likely to be even more dysfunctional, over the next two years.

Many excellent incumbents went down to defeat, especially progressive stalwart Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI). Quality challengers were also swamped by the political tidal wave.
.
The election year was marked at the start by the astonishing upset victory of Scott Brown (R-MA) in the special election to replace the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy. The bluest of states selected a little-known conservative Republican -- a harbinger of things to come.

Then, three senior Democrats, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, announced their retirements.

The surprises continued. Three senior Republicans were denied renomination by their own party in Utah, Pennsylvania and Alaska.

The nascent Tea Party movement produced inexperienced candidates that upset establishment Republicans in Kentucky, Florida, Nevada, Delaware and Colorado.

Senate election results
Nov 03, 2010

Contests where Council for a Livable World has endorsed:

(winner is bolded)

California
52% - Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)
42% - Carly Fiorina (R)

Colorado
48% - Sen. Michael Bennet (D)
47% - Ken Buck (R)

Delaware
57% – Chris Coons (D)
40% - Christine O’Donnell (R)

Iowa
33% - Roxanne Conlin (D)
65% - Sen. Charles Grassley (R)

Kentucky
44% - Jack Conway (D)
56% - Rand Paul (R)

Missouri
41% - Robin Carnahan (D)
54% - U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt (R)

Vote Today!
Nov 02, 2010

Today is Election Day and a quarter of all registered voters have already cast their ballots! However, there are still many close races and we need you, your friends and family to get out and vote!

There is still time to vote, click here to find your polling location!

If you’ve already voted, encourage your friends, family and co-workers to get to their voting stations and show their support for arms control candidates.  Do your part to get out the vote today.