Politico: top 10 Senate contests in the country
Oct 28, 2011
Hawaii cruises into 'Monthly 10'
By: David Catanese - October 27, 2011
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=375E7460-FB15-4EDB-A986-AE74B0CD1615
Republicans’ Big Kahuna recruit, Linda Lingle, hands Hawaii its first foray into the Senate Monthly 10 — POLITICO’s monthly ratings of the most competitive contests in the country. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren has cleared the deck in Massachusetts, moving the race up to the second spot, and a cloudy GOP primary pushes Wisconsin down a notch.
1. VIRGINIA
Not only did Tim Kaine outraise George Allen by about $400,000 for the quarter; filings reveal the Republican spent 83 percent of what he raised. It’s a rapid burn rate Team Allen sees as an early investment, but it’s allowing Kaine some legroom in the dash for cash, despite getting a later start in the race. It’s also unclear whether the GOP strategy of linking Kaine to President Barack Obama is effective. While the president’s numbers have dropped in the commonwealth, Kaine has stayed steady in public polling of this deadlocked race.
Who won October: Kaine
Latest poll: Kaine 45 percent, Allen 44 percent (Quinnipiac University, Oct. 3-9, 1,459 registered voters)
Council for a Livable World Endorses Elizabeth Warren for Senate
Oct 20, 2011
Council for a Livable World today announced its endorsement of consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren for Senate from Massachusetts.
Warren is running for the seat now held by Republican Senator Scott Brown.
Council president Gary Collins called Warren: “intelligent, articulate and unwavering in her commitment to strong principles.”
Collins added “In a few short weeks Warren has proved to be a nimble candidate who is attracting support in Massachusetts and around the country.”
Ira Lechner, Council’s chairman, pointed out that Warren faces candidates who have a strong background on national security issues, Alan Khazei, City Year founder and 2010 Senate candidate endorsed then by Council for a Livable World, and State Representative Thomas Conroy.
Lechner said that Massachusetts is once again presenting a list of excellent candidates. He noted while both Khazei and Conroy are quality candidates, they trail far behind Warren in primary election polls and Brown in the general election polls.
He added “we are excited to get involved early in a campaign that has impressed voters in Massachusetts and supporters around the country.”
Aaron Blake & Chris Cillizza: Top 10 Senate contest to change party hands
Oct 18, 2011
GOP expands the Senate map, but Democrats ready to play offense
New York Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer said this week that he thinks every Democratic incumbent running in 2012 will win reelection and that his party could actually pick off a seat or two from the GOP.
The first part of that statement seems a bit too optimistic though the second part could actually happen.
Recent events in Hawaii and Michigan show that Republicans are successfully expanding the Senate map in 2012, and now have a legitimate chance of winning a Democratic-held seats in at least 10 states.
Former governor Linda Lingle (R) got into the race in the Aloha State this week, giving Republicans their top recruit. Meanwhile in Michigan, Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) showed some fundraising prowess that we hadn’t seen from him before, pulling in $1 million in the third quarter.
Neither of those races have cracked our Senate Line just yet, but they do show the GOP expanding its potential paths to the majority.
Cillizza: Friday Senate Line: Democrats get their woman in Massachusetts. Now what?
Sep 16, 2011
After months of searching for a top-tier candidate to take on Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) in 2012, national Democrats — finally — landed their pick in the form of former Obama Administration official Elizabeth Warren.
Now that Warren is in the race, the question is what kind of candidate will she be?
Democrats insist early returns are promising, noting that Warren was at a “T” stop in Boston at 7 am on the first day of her campaign and kept at it until late at night.
One day, of course, does not a campaign make. And Republicans will work very hard to paint Warren as an out-of-touch Harvard elitist — Warren is on staff at Harvard Law School — who can’t win over the blue-collar Democrats who will likely be the swing vote of this election.
What we know about Warren is that she will be a terrific fundraiser with national reach thanks to her status as hero of the liberal left. (Warren led a congressional committee that oversaw the bank bailouts of 2008 and went on to build the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a role for which she was lionized by Democrats and villainized by Republicans.)
That should make Warren a favorite in the Democratic primary next September over lesser knowns like Newton Mayor Setti Warren and 2010 special election candidate Alan Khazei.
Against Brown, however, Warren may find herself playing catch-up financially. Brown ended June with $9.6 million in the bank and Warren’s candidacy almost certainly will be a boost to his national fundraising.
Given the difficulties of the map facing Democrats in 2012 — 23 of their own seats are up as compared to just 10 for Republicans — making a major push in Massachusetts was an absolute necessity.
Warren gives them the sort of high-profile candidate they wanted. Whether she turns out to be a truly good candidate on the stump remains to be seen.
As always, the number one ranked race on the Line is considered the most likely to switch party control in 2012.
Chris Cillizza: Senate election rankings
Aug 19, 2011
All quiet on the Senate retirement front
In the first five months of the year, it seemed like a Senator decided to call it quits once a week.
All tolled, eight Senators — six who caucus with Democrats and two Republicans — said “sayonara” by mid-May. (Wisconsin Rep. Herb Kohl was the last to bow out on May 13.)
Since then? Silence.
That’s good news for Senate Democrats who are trying to protect their three-seat majority in 2012 even while facing the difficult math of having to defend 23 of their own seats as compared to just 10 Republican-held seats.
A few months ago, it felt like the dam was about to burst on Senate Democrats — with an exodus of members in swing states that would make holding the majority virtually impossible.
Those leaks have since been contained and no new ones have sprung up — bad metaphor alert! — leaving Democrats with a tough but not impossible path to retaining the majority next November.
Important Election Deadline on Thursday
Jun 29, 2011
June 30th, at 11:59 PM, we will have reached the end of the 2nd Quarter in the 2012 election cycle, a key marker for judging the strength of political campaigns. We are asking you at this critical time to contribute to six crucial Senate races.
Republicans need to win only four seats to take control of the Senate. And the odds are stacked in their favor. The numbers are clear: Democrats must defend 23 seats, while the GOP is defending only 10.
Please consider a donation before this important deadline.
Some of the top Republican targets are the arms control candidates in swing states that we are asking you to support –
Chris Cillezza: The 6 states that could decide the Senate and the presidency
Jun 12, 2011
By Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/the-six-states-that-could-decide-the-presidency-and-the-senate/2011/06/09/AGI67BPH_blog.html
Of the 10 Senate races most likely to switch parties in the 2012 election, six of them are in states likely to be targeted by the two national parties at the presidential level.
Those six states — New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin and Virginia — could well then decide not only the identity of the next president but also which party controls the Senate in 2013.
In 2008, President Obama carried five of the six, losing only Missouri — and that narrowly.
But in the intervening three years, Republicans have captured the governorships of New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia as well as 13 U.S. House seats in those six states combined.
The question then for 2012 is whether the political atmospherics will more closely resemble 2008 (good for Democrats) or 2010 (good for Republicans).
Senate Democratic candidates Join the 2012 Fray
Apr 07, 2011
After a few months of listening to Republicans crow about significant recruitment gains for key Senate contests, Democratic candidates have finally begun crawling out of the woodwork.
For several months, Republicans could boast of key Senate candidates who announced early for 2012 Senate contests:
Chris Cillizza Senate line
Feb 18, 2011
Why Tim Kaine matters
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/the-line/off-the-line-michigan-on.html
Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine continues to mull the prospect of a bid for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Webb (D) in 2012, delaying any announcement until at least next week.
What Kaine decides has obvious implications for the party's hopes of holding the Virginia seat. Kaine, a former Virginia governor, is Democrats' strongest candidate and would make a race against former Sen. George Allen (R) instantly competitive. The Democrats who might run if Kaine doesn't simply don't carry that same stature.
But, Kaine's decision also has less obvious but no less important implications for Democrats nationally.
Why?
Because Democrats haven't had all that much good news this cycle. In addition to the daunting raw numbers -- 23 Democrats (or Democratic-aligned) senators are up for reelection in 2012 as compared to just 10 Republicans --the New Mexico seat is the latest in a string of potentially problematic open seat races that have emerged.
Landing Kaine -- a top-tier recruit who has wavered on the idea of running -- would be the sort of foundational building block that Senate Democrats could build around.
Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ) Announces Retirement
Feb 10, 2011
Today, after over 16 years representing Arizona in the Senate, the No. 2 Republican Senator Jon Kyl has announced his retirement. Sen. Kyl is now the 5th Senator (and 2nd Republican) to announce retirement plans this year. His decision follows that of Sen. Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Hutchison (R-TX), Sen. Lieberman (I-CT), and Sen. Webb (D-VA).
As it is well known by now, the arms-control community has had a contentious relationship with Sen. Kyl, who has served as the face of GOP on nuclear issues. The most notable and recent clash was over New START and Senator Kyl's desire to block ratification by any means necessary - in spite of the board bipartisan support the treaty received.
Although the Council wishes Senator Kyl luck in his private endeavors, his retirement may signal hope on the horizon for further progress on President Obama's vision of a world without nuclear weapons. Kyl has long been known as an opponent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT )- if and when CTBT is brought to the Senate for ratification, will another Republican Senator step up to lead the opposition? Speculation over who will serve alongside Senator McCain begins now – stay tuned to the Council’s Senate Election Center.
