Senate campaign fundraising reports
Jul 28, 2009

Analyzing candidates’ fundraising reports is one barometer of the state of a Senate contest months before the actual election.

One candidate far exceeding the fundraising total of his or her opponent has a significant leg up on the competition. Candidates lagging far behind at this early stage of the competition – or have not even decided whether to run – have a lot of catching up to do.

Where the fundraising totals are close between candidates, it is likely that the Senate contest will be very competitive.

The John Isaacs rule of thumb is that candidates can overcome a 2 to 1 spending disadvantage if they have resources for a significant television advertising buy – particularly if the party committees help out.  Larger spending advantages are harder to overcome.

These assumptions are used to examine the fundraising reports filed by Senate candidates on July 15, detailing fundraising for the previous three months.  The two key figures examined here are how much was raised in the last quarter and how much the campaigns have in cash on-hand.