Big news on the Senate front
Jan 06, 2010
Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND), who helped kill the Reliable Replacement Warhead, will not run for re-election.
Not even a week into 2010, November Senate contests are already undergoing dramatic change.
Two senior Democrats, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, have announced their retirements.
In Connecticut, the retirement is good news for Democrats. Dodd was considered a dead duck by many, hurt by his run for the presidency, his banking ties and allegations of sweetheart real estate deals.
He faced opposition from two major candidates: former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) and World Wresting Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R). McMahon started advertising immediately after getting into the contest and may spend as much as $30 million.
On the Democratic side, state attorney general Richard Blumenthal, who once worked for Dodd, is immensely popular, has already declared for the seat and is now favored to win. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in November showed Blumenthal with a 78% - 13% approval rating for his job as attorney general.
In North Dakota, Dorgan’s departure is good news for Republicans.
New Poll in CT - Himes vs. Shays
Oct 08, 2008
Jim Himes
A new independent poll in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Shays (R) with a ten point lead over CLW-endorsed Jim Himes:
A Sacred Heart Univ.WSHU-FM poll; conducted 9/22-25; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +- 4.9% (release, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Chris Shays (R) and Greenwich Dem Chair Jim Himes (D).
C. Shays 41%
J. Himes 31%
At first glance, this would seem to refute the Himes-funded poll we blogged about a few weeks ago that showed a dead heat. To be sure, independent polls are usually more reliable than those paid for by campaigns, but, as usual, the devil is in the details.
The key detail here is name recognition. In the Himes poll, he enjoys 60% name recognition. In the independent poll, he is at 47%. The conclusion is pretty clear: when people know about Himes they tend to support him, but they are unwilling to support someone they don't know against a popular longtime incumbent.
So where is Himes' name recognition really? That's hard to say without digging into the methodologies of the two polls. The safe and easy answer is that it is probably somewhere in between them.
In any case, Himes' best strategy between now and election day is to blanket the airwaves with ads introducing him to voters. The only problem is that this district sits in the New York City media market, the most expensive in the country. The upside is that Himes is rumored to be about to file a September fundraising report with the FEC showing him bringing more than $800k, a phenomenal sum for a challenger. But he will need more.