Lessons from Tuesday’s Elections – This is not 1994
May 20, 2010

Political professionals were looking at the primary and special elections held on Tuesday as the single most telling indicator of what the dynamics will be for the general elections in November.  So now that the results are in, what conclusions can we draw?

Republicans were hoping that Tuesday’s elections would confirm their hope that a nationwide wave, similar to that in the 1994 elections, is building which would lead to landslide Republican victories in November and returning them control of the House of Representatives.  Tuesday’s elections seriously undermined this narrative.

Warning signs in PA-12
Apr 30, 2010

I blogged a few weeks ago about Democrats worried about the special election to replace the deceased John Murtha.  Polling since that post indicates that the Republican, Tim Burns, may be poised to defeat Democrat Mark Critz.  A Research 2000 poll today fits right into that narrative:

   Mark Critz (D): 40
    Tim Burns (R): 46
    Undecided: 14
    (MoE: ?4%)

This district was trending Republican even while Murtha held office.  It is one of the few in the nation where Barack Obama received less of the vote than John Kerry did in 2004.  If the district goes Republican on May 18, it will be a serious black eye for the Democratic party.

In the House - House Election News - Dems Fear Scott Brown Redux
Apr 08, 2010

Nervous Democrats Eye May Special Elections

Politico is reporting that Democratic strategists are nervous about upcoming special elections in Hawaii and Pennsylvania.  Both seats have been held by Democrats for years – Neil Abercombie in Hawaii, who is running for Governor (not Senate as originally posted - sorry for the typo - Guy) and the recently deceased John Murtha in Pennsylvania.  Democrats fear that circumstances unique to these congressional districts could spur Republican wins next month.  If that were to happen the national media might portray the elections as indications that there is a nation-wide anti-Obama mood, which might lead to widespread Democratic losses in November.

In the House - House Election News - Cattle Call on Cape Cod
Mar 11, 2010

I blogged earlier about rumors that Rep. Delahunt was considering retiring from his seat in eastern Massachusetts.  Last week, Delahunt confirmed the rumors by announcing he will not run for reelection in 2010.  Republicans, energized by Sen. Scott Murphy’s upset in January’s special Senate election, smell a pick-up opportunity.

Open seats are a rarity in Massachusetts and potential contenders are lining up on both sides.

In the House - House Election News - Nomination Shake 'N' Bake
Feb 26, 2010

Jockeying for the Democratic Nod in Pennsylvania

After a hectic few weeks, the crowded field for the Democratic nomination to succeed the recently deceased Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) seems to be narrowing down.   Democratic party leaders will choose a nominee on March 6th.

There was initial speculation that Murtha’s widow, Joyce Murtha, might receive the nomination.  However, she indicated earlier this week that she was not interested in filling the position and endorsed Murtha district director Mark Critz.  Another potential candidate, former Lt. Governor Mark Singel, dropped out yesterday and also endorsed Critz.  That leaves Critz and former state Treasurer Barbara Hafer as the leading candidates, although there are a few dark horse candidates remaining as well.  With the high profile endorsements of Singel and Joyce Murtha, Critz may be the favorite.

On the Republican side, party officials have failed to recruit any marquee names.  They are left to select between the ’08 nominee, William Russell, and local businessman and first-time candidate Tim Burns.  Party officials are rumored to be leaning toward Burns, but Russell has indicated a willingness to run as an Independent spoiler if he does not get the Republican nomination.  If Russell follows through on those threats, whoever the Democratic nominee is would be heavily favored to win.