National Republicans Pulling Ads in Peters v Knollenberg
Oct 16, 2008

The national Republican party is following the the McCain campaign's lead and pulling all of its advertising out of Michigan's 9th Congressional District.  These ads would have supported embattled Rep. Joe Knollenberg.  It is likely that Republicans have internal polls that back up earlier polls that showed CLW backed Gary Peters taking the lead.

You can learn more about this race here.

Michigan - 3 New Polls in Peters v. Knollenberg
Oct 10, 2008

When it rains, it pours!  Three polls have been released in the past few days looking at the race between CLW endorsee Gary Peters and Rep. Joe Knollenberg.  Taken together they paint a pretty clear picture of Peters holding a narrow lead in a tight race.  Here are the numbers:

Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/4-5, likely voters, 8/17-19 in parens):
    Gary Peters (D): 46 (41)
    Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 37 (37)
    Jack Kevorkian (I): 2 (8)
    Undecided: 15 (14)
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

Mitchell Research & Communications (9/30-10/2, likely voters):
    Gary Peters (D): 43
    Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 43
    (MoE: ±6%)

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Gary Peters (10/6-7, likely voters):
    Gary Peters (D): 43
    Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 40
    Jack Kevorkian (I): 5
    Other: 5
    Undecided: 8
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

Gary Peters is well known and liked in Michigan due to his successful tenure as State Lottery Commissioner.  He is reported to be ready to announce that he raised more than $650k since July, quite a tidy sum for a challenger.  Also, as I pointed out in an earlier post, McCan's decision to stop campaigning in Michigan should put a serious damper on Republican organizing in downballot races.  All, in all, things are looking very good for Peters.

Help Peters reach the finish line here.

McCain Pulls Out of Michigan - How Does that Play Downballot?
Oct 06, 2008

The political world was abuzz last week with the news that John McCain is suspending campaign activities in Michigan.  Michigan is one of the few states that normally votes Democratic that McCain thought he could flip Republican.  With this development McCain is not only effectively ceding 17 electoral votes to Obama, but he has drastically reduced the number of strategies that can get him to the magic 270 votes needed to win.

With all the focus on the ramifications of this development on the Presidential race, it is only today that the media has started looking at how this plays out in races for the Senate and House of Representatives.  Today’s Wall Street Journal took a look, and the short answer in Michigan Republicans are Freaked Out:

The presidential candidate's decision last week to stop campaigning in Michigan and scale back advertising there triggered complaints from state party leaders that the withdrawal could undercut in particular two Republican members of Congress facing tough re-election challenges at a time when the party is struggling to contain its losses on Capitol Hill.

"I am sure you've heard the news by now that the McCain Campaign decided to pull out of Michigan," Chairman Saul Anuzis, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, wrote in a fund-raising email to supporters marked URGENT. "This move leaves a tremendous hole in our ground campaign that we must now fill." Mr. Anuzis cited the potential fallout for the re-election drives of Reps. Joe Knollenberg and Tim Walberg.

Candidates down the ballot count on the Presidential campaigns to keep local activists excited and to fund and direct get-out-the-vote efforts.

With the McCain camp publicly admitting defeat, funding and volunteers for these critical on-the-ground efforts will be in short supply.  In short, two very close races just got a whole lot closer.

Council for a Livable World has endorsed Gary Peters, the Democrat running against Rep. Joe Knollenberg.

You can read more about his campaign here.

2 New Polls in States that Begin with "M" for Candidates that Begin with "P"
Sep 30, 2008

Two new polls out show Council endorsed candidates with solid leads.

First, let’s look at a poll for the seat in Maine left open by Rep. Tom Allen’s decision to run for Senate:

Chellie Pingree (D – CLW endorsee) – 44%
Charlie Summers (R) – 33%

This pretty much confirms the conventional wisdom that the real race in this district occurred in the Democratic primary.  Looks like we’ll be seeing Pingree in DC next year.

You can support Pingree here.

Now, to Michigan:

Gary Peters (D – CLW endorsee) - 41
Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) -    37
Jack Kevorkian (I) - 8
Undecided – 14

This is the first time we’ve seen Peters leading, but take it with a grain of salt.  This poll was paid for by the Democratic party, and was actually taken back in August.  Party financed polls frequently favor their candidates, and one wonders why they sat on it so long.  Still, it is a clear indicator that this is a close race.

Read more about this race here.

Oh, and yes, that is Dr. Death coming in third.  Who said life (or death) doesn’t have second acts?