New Poll in CT - Himes vs. Shays
Oct 08, 2008

A new independent poll in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Shays (R) with a ten point lead over CLW-endorsed Jim Himes:

A Sacred Heart Univ.WSHU-FM poll; conducted 9/22-25; surveyed 400 LVs; margin of error +- 4.9% (release, 10/7). Tested: Rep. Chris Shays (R) and Greenwich Dem Chair Jim Himes (D).

C. Shays  41%

J. Himes  31%

At first glance, this would seem to refute the Himes-funded poll we blogged about a few weeks ago that showed a dead heat.  To be sure, independent polls are usually more reliable than those paid for by campaigns, but, as usual, the devil is in the details.

The key detail here is name recognition.  In the Himes poll, he enjoys 60% name recognition.  In the independent poll, he is at 47%.  The conclusion is pretty clear:  when people know about Himes they tend to support him, but they are unwilling to support someone they don't know against a popular longtime incumbent.

So where is Himes' name recognition really?  That's hard to say without digging into the methodologies of the two polls.  The safe and easy answer is that it is probably somewhere in between them.

In any case, Himes' best strategy between now and election day is to blanket the airwaves with ads introducing him to voters.  The only problem is that this district sits in the New York City media market, the most expensive in the country.  The upside is that Himes is rumored to be about to file a September fundraising report with the FEC showing him bringing more than $800k, a phenomenal sum for a challenger.  But he will need more.

You can support Jim Himes here.

Chris Himes pulls even with Shays in CT
Sep 22, 2008

CLW endorsed Chris Himes (D) released a poll today showing him dead even with Rep. Chris Shays (R) at 45% each.  As with the Markey poll below, this is paid for by the Himes campaign, so it may be weighted in his favor.  Even so, it is a dramatic change in a race that Shays seemed to dominate over the summer.

A likely factor is Shays’ refusal last week to back off his McCain like statement that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.”  This congressional district is a bedroom community for Wall Street chock full of stock analysts and hedge fund brokers.  Somehow, I think they might have a different take on the health of their portfolios at the moment.

Himes had years of experience as an investment banker before going to work for a non-profit that works to provide low-income housing.  This resume might put him over the top this year against Shays, who as a long serving member of the Financial Services Committee might catch some of the blame for our economic implosion.

You can support Chris Himes here.