Lessons from Tuesday’s Elections – This is not 1994
May 20, 2010
Political professionals were looking at the primary and special elections held on Tuesday as the single most telling indicator of what the dynamics will be for the general elections in November. So now that the results are in, what conclusions can we draw?
Republicans were hoping that Tuesday’s elections would confirm their hope that a nationwide wave, similar to that in the 1994 elections, is building which would lead to landslide Republican victories in November and returning them control of the House of Representatives. Tuesday’s elections seriously undermined this narrative.
Warning signs in PA-12
Apr 30, 2010
I blogged a few weeks ago about Democrats worried about the special election to replace the deceased John Murtha. Polling since that post indicates that the Republican, Tim Burns, may be poised to defeat Democrat Mark Critz. A Research 2000 poll today fits right into that narrative:
Mark Critz (D): 40
Tim Burns (R): 46
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ?4%)
This district was trending Republican even while Murtha held office. It is one of the few in the nation where Barack Obama received less of the vote than John Kerry did in 2004. If the district goes Republican on May 18, it will be a serious black eye for the Democratic party.
In the House – House Election News – All About the Benjamins
Mar 25, 2010
Money makes the world go round.
NRCC Outraises DCCC
As FEC fundraising reports for February roll in, the National Republican Campaign Committee has outraised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – the first report in qjuite some time where they have done so. The NRCC reported raising $5.1 million to the DCCCs’ $4.4 million. The DCCC still dwarfs the NRCC in cash-on-hand however, $19.8 million to $6 million.
It will be interesting to see how the Democrats’ victory on health care reform affects both parties’ fundraising. As the health care vote only happened at the end of March, however, we probably won’t see this reflected until April numbers are reported.