My Blog Posts

• House Results
  11/10/2008 11:53:50 AM EST
  Last week was crazy, so my apologies for not posting this sooner: OVERALL: 20 wins, 8  losses, 3 undecided. WINS:
  John Adler (NJ-03 – Republican held open  seat)
  Jason Altmire (PA-04 – 1st term incumbent)
  Kathey Dahlkemper  (PA-03 – upsets Phil English)
  Donna Edwards (MD-04  - defeated Al Wynn  in Dem primary)
  Bill Foster (IL-14 – won special election for Hastert’s  seat in March)
  Alan Grayson (FL-08 – upsets Ric Keller)
  John Hall (NY-19  - 1st term incumbent)
  Jim Himes (CT-04 – upsets Chris Shays)
  Steve Kagen  (WI-08 - 1st term incumbent)
  Dan Maffei (NY-25 – open seat race to replace  Jim Walsh (R))
  Betsy Markey (CO-04 – upsets Marilyn Musgrave)
  Eric Massa  (NY-29 – defeats Randy Kuhl (R))
  Patrick Murphy (PA-08 - 1st term  incumbent)
  Glenn Nye (VA-02 – upsets Thelma Drake)
  Gary Peters (MI-09 –  upsets Joe Knollenberg)
  Chellie Pingree (ME-01 – open seat race to replace  Tom Allen)
  Joe Sestak (PA-07 - 1st term incumbent)
  Carol Shea-Porter  (NH-01 - 1st term incumbent, top Republican target)
  Nikki Tsongas (MA-05 -  won special election to replace Meehan last fall)
  John Yarmuth (KY-03 - 1st  term incumbent) LOSSES:
  Sam Bennett (PA-15 – loses to Charlie  Dent)
  Darcy  Burner (WA-08 – Burner trails conceded over the weekend)
  Wayne Gilchrest (MD-01 - lost Republican primary)
  Nick Leibham (CA-50)
  Ashwin Madia  (MN-03 – loses in open seat race to replace Jim Ramstad (R))
  Jon Powers  (NY-26 – defeated in Sept. primary)
  Victoria Wulsin (OH-02 – defeated by  Jean Schmidt)
  Linda Stender (NJ-07 – open seat race to replace Mike  Ferguson (R)) UNDECIDED
  Charlie Brown (CA-04 –  open seat race to replace John Doolittle)
  Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15 –  open seat, Kilroy trails Lance by a slim margin)
  Tom Perriello (VA-05 – Perriello holds a narrow lead, Rep. Goode may call for a recount)
• Final New Hampshire House Polls
  11/03/2008 04:40:03 PM EST
  24 hours to go! New Hampshire – 01 (Concord Monitor)
  Jeb Bradley (R) – 42%
  Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D – CLW Endorsed) – 49% New Hampshire – 01 (Univ. New Hampshire)
  Jeb Bradley (R) – 41%
  Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D – CLW Endorsed) – 46%
• Wednesday Morning House Poll Update
  10/29/2008 12:05:00 PM EST
  New polls today for CLW endorsed candidates... Minnesota – 03 – Open Seat
  Ashwn Madia (D – CLW Endorsed) – 44%
  Eric Paulsen (R) – 45% New Hampshire – 01
  Jeb Bradley (R) – 40%
  Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D – CLW Endorsed) – 48% Ohio – 15 – Open Seat
  Mary Jo Kilroy (D – CLW Endorsed) – 47%
  Steve Stivers (R) – 41% Pennsylvania – 03
  Kathy Dahlkemper (D – CLW Endorsed) – 45%
  Rep. Phil English (R) – 47%
  
• New House Poll Round-Up
  10/27/2008 05:09:07 PM EST
  There are some many polls coming in for House races, that there's no way I can blog on each of them.  So...below the fold are polls in the last week or so in races where Council for a Livable World has made an endorsement.   The quick and dirty summary?  Our guys are doing great!
• Tea Leaves – Do Republican Strategists Sense a Landslide?
  10/16/2008 04:30:24 PM EST
  There are a number of developments in the past few days which may indicate that strategists in the national Republican party believe that the 2008 elections will be a Democratic landslide of historic proportions.  Rather than attempting to win any Democratic seats, Republicans are desperately trying to stem their losses. Granted, studying campaign expenditures to try to determine electoral strategies can be a little like reading tea leaves to determine the future.  However, looking at how national campaign strategists decide to spend their limited resources can be a good way of determining which races they believe can win and which they believe they will lose.  In the case of the national Republican party this year, which has extremely limited resources, financial decisions may be more telling than usual. So, what are these telling developments? •    Under the headline GOP may ditch recruits to rescue incumbents Politico reported Tuesday that House Republicans have ceased funding some of their “prized recruits” in order to focus on incumbents.  The list of incumbents they consider endangered was a stunner for those of us who follow House races, a number of them were not on anybody’s list of close races. •    Senate Republicans followed suit the next day, canceling their advertising in the Louisiana Senate race, the one Democratic Senate seat that was considered vulnerable this year. •    Even some of those incumbents are getting ditched: The Hill reported today that the national Republican party is pulling out of Michigan’s 9th Congressional District, leaving embattled incumbent Rep. Joe Knollenberg to fend for himself. •    Republicans may not be considering just House and Senate races as hopeless, they may be giving up on John McCain as well.  Politico also reported that the Republican National Committee is in triage and “considering tapping into a $5 million line of credit this week to aid an increasing number of vulnerable incumbents.”  What is striking is that Republicans would put this last minute cash infusion into Congressional races instead of using it to try to put McCain over the top.  The implication is that they believe McCain will lose and the better use of their money is to try to stop Democrats from getting a filibuster proof 60 vote majority in the Senate. •    Picking up on this meme, election guru Stu Rothenberg ran an article in today’s Roll Call (subscription only) with several anonymous Republican strategists debating whether to “throw McCain under the bus” and publicly tell donors the Presidential race is lost and their best hope is to contribute in Senate and House races to try to stop an overwhelming Democratic majority in Congress. Taken separately, these developments could be explained as tactical decisions unique to each individual race.  Taken together, however, they begin to paint a picture of a party not just in disarray, but in blind, panicked retreat and burning its bridges behind it.