My Blog Posts

• Redistricting - Early results favor Dems in IL & CA
  06/13/2011 04:58:48 PM EST
  In the wake of the 2010 elections, many observers believed that Republicans would have the upper hand in the upcoming Congressional redistricting process and use it to build on their already sizable majority in the House of Representatives.  Following the Republican wave of 2010, Republicans enjoyed control of both the Governorship and legislature in 20 states.  The Democrats controlled only 11 states and 18 states were split. However, as the minutiae of the redistricting process begin to play out, this does not seem to be the case.  Two factors are largely responsible.  First, Republicans won so many seats in 2010 that there are few left for them to win through redistricting, and second, the changing demographics of the U.S. population simply favor the Democrats.  Most places where news seats are being added will tend to elect Democrats while the populations of Republican parts of the country are shrinking. Two states in the midst of their redistricting processes demonstrate that Democrats are actually gaining seats – Illinois and California.
• Republicans Release List of House Targets
  08/25/2010 03:50:56 PM EST
  Republicans released a list of 41 House races where they will reserve television time for campaign commercials.  House Minority Leader John Boehner (OH) subsequently promised that the NRCC will spend $50 million on the effort.  REaders of my last post will quickly point out that this is far more the the $22 million the NRCC has in the bank.  However, if the NRCC keeps fundraising at its current pace ($8.5 million in July) and takes out a line of credit, as it has in past elections, this figure may be within its grasp. Complete list of targeted races after the jump.
  
• Party Committees Release Fundraising Figures
  08/25/2010 03:17:12 PM EST
  The independent Republican and Democratic party committees released their July fund-raising numbers last week.  This money will be used to help elect their candidates, primarily on television ads not coordinated with the individual campaigns.  Here are their current  cash-on-hand totals: House
  DCCC - $35,807,987
  NRCC - $22,092,381 Senate
  DSCC - $22,500,000
  NRSC - $21,200,000 DNC - $10,855,684
  RNC - $5,297,047 Dem. Total - $69,163,671
  Rep. Total - $48,589,428 Money, it appears, is the one place where Democrats still enjoy an advantage over Republicans this cycle.
• Selected Tuesday Primary Results
  06/09/2010 04:05:36 PM EST
  As promised in my last post, selected results from yesterday's primaries are after the jump
• Tuesday’s Primary Results – What Do They Tell Us?
  06/09/2010 12:21:39 PM EST
  In one of the busiest voting days of the year, 8 states held primary elections yesterday.  The only busier voting day before the general elections on November 2nd will be September 14th, when 8 states and the District of Columbia go to the polls.  With so many elections being held, is there a message that can be drawn to make a prediction for what will happen in November. The only message that can be drawn from yesterday’s elections is that there is no single overarching narrative for the 2010 elections.