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Redistricting - Early results favor Dems in IL & CA
Jun 13, 2011
In the wake of the 2010 elections, many observers believed that Republicans would have the upper hand in the upcoming Congressional redistricting process and use it to build on their already sizable majority in the House of Representatives. Following the Republican wave of 2010, Republicans enjoyed control of both the Governorship and legislature in 20 states. The Democrats controlled only 11 states and 18 states were split.
However, as the minutiae of the redistricting process begin to play out, this does not seem to be the case. Two factors are largely responsible. First, Republicans won so many seats in 2010 that there are few left for them to win through redistricting, and second, the changing demographics of the U.S. population simply favor the Democrats. Most places where news seats are being added will tend to elect Democrats while the populations of Republican parts of the country are shrinking.
Two states in the midst of their redistricting processes demonstrate that Democrats are actually gaining seats – Illinois and California.
Republicans Release List of House Targets
Aug 25, 2010
It's a target. Get it?
Republicans released a list of 41 House races where they will reserve television time for campaign commercials. House Minority Leader John Boehner (OH) subsequently promised that the NRCC will spend $50 million on the effort. REaders of my last post will quickly point out that this is far more the the $22 million the NRCC has in the bank. However, if the NRCC keeps fundraising at its current pace ($8.5 million in July) and takes out a line of credit, as it has in past elections, this figure may be within its grasp.
Complete list of targeted races after the jump.
Party Committees Release Fundraising Figures
Aug 25, 2010
Money Makes the World Go 'Round
The independent Republican and Democratic party committees released their July fund-raising numbers last week. This money will be used to help elect their candidates, primarily on television ads not coordinated with the individual campaigns. Here are their current cash-on-hand totals:
House
DCCC - $35,807,987
NRCC - $22,092,381
Senate
DSCC - $22,500,000
NRSC - $21,200,000
DNC - $10,855,684
RNC - $5,297,047
Dem. Total - $69,163,671
Rep. Total - $48,589,428
Money, it appears, is the one place where Democrats still enjoy an advantage over Republicans this cycle.
Selected Tuesday Primary Results
Jun 09, 2010
As promised in my last post, selected results from yesterday's primaries are after the jump
Tuesday’s Primary Results – What Do They Tell Us?
Jun 09, 2010
In one of the busiest voting days of the year, 8 states held primary elections yesterday. The only busier voting day before the general elections on November 2nd will be September 14th, when 8 states and the District of Columbia go to the polls. With so many elections being held, is there a message that can be drawn to make a prediction for what will happen in November.
The only message that can be drawn from yesterday’s elections is that there is no single overarching narrative for the 2010 elections.
Why Republicans are Likely to Win in Hawaii Tomorrow – And Why You Shouldn’t Care
May 21, 2010
Actually, Not a Wave
On Saturday there will be a special election in Hawaii to fill the congressional seat being left open by Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D), who resigned to run for Governor. All indications are that the election will be won by Republican businessman Charles Djou.
This is not a seat that should be won by Republicans. It is solidly Democratic, and, in fact, is the home district of Barack Obama. However, a Republican win here is due entirely to circumstances unique to this election. Any attempt to portray this election as an indicator of the national mood or Republican prospects in November should be studiously ignored.
Lessons from Tuesday’s Elections – This is not 1994
May 20, 2010
Political professionals were looking at the primary and special elections held on Tuesday as the single most telling indicator of what the dynamics will be for the general elections in November. So now that the results are in, what conclusions can we draw?
Republicans were hoping that Tuesday’s elections would confirm their hope that a nationwide wave, similar to that in the 1994 elections, is building which would lead to landslide Republican victories in November and returning them control of the House of Representatives. Tuesday’s elections seriously undermined this narrative.
Hard Hitting Sestak Ad
May 10, 2010
View the latest ad in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary:
Warning signs in PA-12
Apr 30, 2010
I blogged a few weeks ago about Democrats worried about the special election to replace the deceased John Murtha. Polling since that post indicates that the Republican, Tim Burns, may be poised to defeat Democrat Mark Critz. A Research 2000 poll today fits right into that narrative:
Mark Critz (D): 40
Tim Burns (R): 46
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ?4%)
This district was trending Republican even while Murtha held office. It is one of the few in the nation where Barack Obama received less of the vote than John Kerry did in 2004. If the district goes Republican on May 18, it will be a serious black eye for the Democratic party.
Full Text of New START Treaty
Apr 08, 2010
Available at the Dept. of State website:http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf.
