Sometimes It Pays to Be Cautious
Mar 02, 2012

So who is going to win the election?  Which party will win control of the Senate in November?  Tell us what is going to happen?

My stock answer:  I don’t know.

Or better yet, I dunno.

There are the professional pundits and experts who will be glad to render an opinion, and they do. In their columns, blogs and t.v. programs, they will boldly cast off doubt and tell us who is going to win.

The may preface their remarks with, my prediction as of today . . .

But the more sensible answer is, I don’t know.

87 House Members Commend Early Combat Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Feb 17, 2012

Washington, D.C. . . . Eighty seven Members of Congress, including nine Republicans, sent a letter today to President Obama praising the administration’s decision to bring home all combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2013.

On February 1, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced that the United States will end its combat missions in Afghanistan by “mid- to the latter part of 2013.”

This step was pressed for in amendments offered last year in the Senate by Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and in the House by Jim McGovern (D-MA) and Walter Jones (R-NC).

This bi-partisan group of 87, at a time of few bi-partisan assemblages, wrote:  “We write to express our support for the Administration’s announcement on February 1st that the United States will complete combat operations in Afghanistan by the end of next year.”

Noted nuclear historian Richard Rhodes on recent report on nuclear reductions
Feb 17, 2012

Dear President Obama:

I am the author of The Making of the Atomic Bomb, which won a Pulitzer Prize, and three other narratives of the Nuclear Age, most recently The Twilight of the Bombs. I write to urge you to reduce the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal to 300 weapons (or fewer), as a recent AP news story reports you are considering.

I understand that your advisers might perceive this option to be a difficult choice in an election year. Certainly you will be attacked by members of the Republican Party as “weak on defense” or worse. That has been a standard attack against Democratic Presidents for at least the past 50 years. I hope it will not dissuade you.

For most of the past three decades, I have researched and analyzed the history of U.S. nuclear policy. I’ve concluded that a major driver of the nuclear arms race, and a major sustainer of our current disastrously high levels of nuclear weapons, has been domestic politics—the “weak on defense” argument, that is. You are in a position dramatically to change that paradigm.

Afghanistan: The Pace of Withdrawals Accelerates; House Letter Supporting That Action
Feb 16, 2012

On February 1, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta announced that the United States will end its combat missions in Afghanistan by “mid- to the latter part of 2013.”

This announcement – whether intended by the Obama Administration at this time is not clear – marks a welcome and accelerated withdrawal timetable. Previously, combat operations were supposed to end in 2014.

The New York Times called the pronouncement “a major milestone toward ending a decade of war in Afghanistan.”

The sooner American military forces exit from Afghanistan – after spending so many lives and treasure – the better.

This step was pressed for in amendments offered last year in the Senate by Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and in the House by Jim McGovern (D-MA) and Walter Jones (R-NC).

Senate Election Outlook With Nine Months to Go
Feb 14, 2012

While most of the public and media attention has been focused on the vigorous Republican Party brawl to nominate a candidate to oppose President Barack Obama, things are hopping along in the contest to see which party will control the Senate in 2013.

While Republicans have a numerical advantage – they only have 10 seats to defend while Democrats have 23 – control of the Senate is more like a jump ball because there are so many very tight Senate contests.

Take Virginia:  Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen have been tied in every credible poll for months and are likely to remain tied into November.

Or Montana:  Democratic Senator Jon Tester and Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg are similarly tied and are likely to remain so.

Or take two seats that Democrats hope to snatch away from Republicans and are in similar close competition.  In Massachusetts, Democrat Elizabeth Warren started out as the underdog to Senator Scott Brown but has pulled into an even race.  In Nevada, Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley is neck-and-neck with Republican Senator Dean Heller.

Other states have very tight races as well, including Missouri and Wisconsin.

And many other contests could swing one way or another in the next nine months.

The House Takes Aggressive Budget Action: Not
Feb 08, 2012

I know you have been waiting with baited breath.

On Friday, the House voted 238 – 179   in favor of eliminating the use of inflation when calculating future year spending.

All Republicans voted yes; all but four Democrats voted no.

The implications for defense budget wonks:  in the future, we no longer need to decide whether to use “real” or “nominal” increases in the Pentagon’s budget. No need to factor in inflation.  Forget about “deflators.” Republicans say so.

Budget expert Stan Collender correctly characterized the exercise as “the silly season – when ridiculous, reckless or just plain irresponsible budget-related plans or ideas are proposed and, sadly, often debated.”

Romney on Afghanistan: which Mitt(en) do we listen to? The left one or the right one?
Feb 02, 2012

Romney in June:

"It's time for us to bring our troops home as soon as we possibly can," Mitt Romney said during Monday's presidential debate. "Only the Afghanis can win Afghanistan's independence from the Taliban," he said.

[From: POLITICO Breaking News <breakingnews@politico.com>; Date: June 13, 2011 9:48:45 PM EDT; POLITICO Breaking News

=======

Romney in February:

Mitt Romney offered harsh criticism of a plan outlined by Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta to possibly withdraw U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan in 2013, calling the administration’s decision to announce its military plans to the world “misguided” and “naive.”

Stop the Presses: Is That A Real Increase in Pentagon Spending?
Feb 01, 2012

Tired of those messy debates about how to measure the growth on Pentagon spending?

Not to worry!

Should one use a straight percentage increase or decrease? Or should one adjust those numbers each year by factoring in inflation estimates (deflators, to use budget parlance, although I thought those were doohickeys to empty air out of a tire).

Should one say the Pentagon budget has increased, say by 4% (nominal), or by 1.8% (real) after adjusting for inflation (you know, the dollar does not buy this year what it used to).

House Republicans are determined to put an end to this pesky problem.  The House is scheduled to take up this week H.R. 3578 , which they have given the title: “Baseline Reform Act of 2011.” (no, not ensuring that the Washington Nationals base paths are straight).  

Heinrich Holds Commanding Lead in NM Senate Primary
Jan 30, 2012

To: Interested Parties
From: Mike Bocian
Date: January 19, 2012

Heinrich Holds Commanding Lead in NM Senate Primary

A new poll of Democratic primary voters in New Mexico shows Martin Heinrich with a commanding lead over Hector Balderas, 52 – 22 percent. Heinrich’s standing is very strong and his lead is built on more than name identification – he leads by a huge margin among voters who can identify both candidates, 51 – 28 percent.

The following are key findings from a survey of 600 likely Democratic primary voters in New Mexico conducted January 8th – 11th, 2012. The survey was conducted by live interviewers, reaching voters on land lines and cell phones. The results are subject to a  4.0 percentage point margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level.

= Democratic primary voters view Heinrich incredibly favorable. 58 percent of voters  give Heinrich a favorable rating, while just 12 percent view him unfavorably. Moreover,  66 percent of voters approve of the job Heinrich is doing as Congressman. Heinrich’s standing is equally good among Hispanics and Anglos. Balderas has good standing (37 – 12 percent favorable-unfavorable, 46 percent job approval), but nowhere near as good as Heinrich’s.

= Heinrich overpowers Balderas in a vote matchup. With a 52 – 22 percent lead, Heinrich dominates Balderas among every segment of the electorate. He leads 57 – 15 percent among Anglos and 46 – 30 percent among Hispanics. Heinrich also holds a strong lead in each of the state’s three congressional districts.

= Heinrich’s lead is very robust. Heinrich’s lead is not driven by name identification; he leads 51 – 28 percent among voters who can identify both candidates.

Vote among all   Vote among voters who can
        Voters           identify both candidates

52%             51%     Martin Heinrich
22%             28%     Hector Balderas
26%             21%     Undecided

Pollster Mark Mellman’s Analysis of 2012 Presidential Race
Jan 27, 2012

Well-regarded pollster Mark Mellman* recently gave an upbeat look at President Obama’s re-election.  

He disagrees with those who think that Obama is “toast” (Mellman spoke before the South Carolina primary, which if anything reinforced his calculations).

Mellman gives the following reasons;

1.    Americans are reluctant to throw a party out of the white House after one term. Only one President in the last century has lost a second party term (Jimmy Carter in 1980; George H.W. Bush was running for a fourth Republican term in 1992).

2.     Per capita real disposable income, rather than unemployment numbers, is the best indicator of re-election prospects, and while the income numbers have not dramatically increased, they have increased enough for Obama to be re-elected.