My Blog Posts

• Romney on Afghanistan: which Mitt(en) do we listen to? The left one or the right one?
  02/02/2012 11:36:04 AM EST
  Romney in June: "It's time for us to bring our troops home as soon as we possibly can," Mitt Romney said during Monday's presidential debate. "Only the Afghanis can win Afghanistan's independence from the Taliban," he said. [From: POLITICO Breaking News <breakingnews@politico.com>; Date: June 13, 2011 9:48:45 PM EDT; POLITICO Breaking News ======= Romney in February: Mitt Romney offered harsh criticism of a plan outlined by Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta to possibly withdraw U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan in 2013, calling the administration’s decision to announce its military plans to the world “misguided” and “naive.”
• Stop the Presses: Is That A Real Increase in Pentagon Spending?
  02/01/2012 03:15:18 PM EST
  Tired of those messy debates about how to measure the growth on Pentagon spending? Not to worry! Should one use a straight percentage increase or decrease? Or should one adjust those numbers each year by factoring in inflation estimates (deflators, to use budget parlance, although I thought those were doohickeys to empty air out of a tire). Should one say the Pentagon budget has increased, say by 4% (nominal), or by 1.8% (real) after adjusting for inflation (you know, the dollar does not buy this year what it used to). House Republicans are determined to put an end to this pesky problem.  The House is scheduled to take up this week H.R. 3578 , which they have given the title: “Baseline Reform Act of 2011.” (no, not ensuring that the Washington Nationals base paths are straight).  
  
• Heinrich Holds Commanding Lead in NM Senate Primary
  01/30/2012 10:19:25 AM EST
  To: Interested Parties
  From: Mike Bocian
  Date: January 19, 2012 Heinrich Holds Commanding Lead in NM Senate Primary A new poll of Democratic primary voters in New Mexico shows Martin Heinrich with a commanding lead over Hector Balderas, 52 – 22 percent. Heinrich’s standing is very strong and his lead is built on more than name identification – he leads by a huge margin among voters who can identify both candidates, 51 – 28 percent. The following are key findings from a survey of 600 likely Democratic primary voters in New Mexico conducted January 8th – 11th, 2012. The survey was conducted by live interviewers, reaching voters on land lines and cell phones. The results are subject to a  4.0 percentage point margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level. = Democratic primary voters view Heinrich incredibly favorable. 58 percent of voters  give Heinrich a favorable rating, while just 12 percent view him unfavorably. Moreover,  66 percent of voters approve of the job Heinrich is doing as Congressman. Heinrich’s standing is equally good among Hispanics and Anglos. Balderas has good standing (37 – 12 percent favorable-unfavorable, 46 percent job approval), but nowhere near as good as Heinrich’s. = Heinrich overpowers Balderas in a vote matchup. With a 52 – 22 percent lead, Heinrich dominates Balderas among every segment of the electorate. He leads 57 – 15 percent among Anglos and 46 – 30 percent among Hispanics. Heinrich also holds a strong lead in each of the state’s three congressional districts. = Heinrich’s lead is very robust. Heinrich’s lead is not driven by name identification; he leads 51 – 28 percent among voters who can identify both candidates. Vote among all   Vote among voters who can
          Voters           identify both candidates 52%             51%     Martin Heinrich
  22%             28%     Hector Balderas
  26%             21%     Undecided
  
• Pollster Mark Mellman’s Analysis of 2012 Presidential Race
  01/27/2012 10:58:09 AM EST
  Well-regarded pollster Mark Mellman* recently gave an upbeat look at President Obama’s re-election.   He disagrees with those who think that Obama is “toast” (Mellman spoke before the South Carolina primary, which if anything reinforced his calculations). Mellman gives the following reasons; 1.    Americans are reluctant to throw a party out of the white House after one term. Only one President in the last century has lost a second party term (Jimmy Carter in 1980; George H.W. Bush was running for a fourth Republican term in 1992). 2.     Per capita real disposable income, rather than unemployment numbers, is the best indicator of re-election prospects, and while the income numbers have not dramatically increased, they have increased enough for Obama to be re-elected.
  
• American Democracy on Trial?
  01/24/2012 02:05:20 PM EST
  Well, not really. But in some instances, yes, particularly very tight elections where the candidates are divided by only a handful of votes. Take the recent Iowa Republican presidential caucus results, for example.  But more on that in a second. Republicans have different concerns.  Supposedly worried about illegal voting, regarding which there is very little evidence, Republicans in many states have added new legal hurdles to voting, such as requiring picture ID’s and limited advance voting in an election. This is not good government; this is targeted at low-income, minority voters and seniors without drivers’ licenses who will find it more difficult to vote and are more likely to vote Democratic. What Republicans, indeed all Americans, should be concerned about is the inability of the American voting apparatus to get the count right in a timely fashion in extremely close elections.